How to Use Correlation in Sports Betting

When you place two or more bets, either together or in a parlay, there’s always a rate of correlation (a relationship between two things) between the bets.

For example, the rate of correlation between taking Stephen Curry over 29.5 points in a given game, and Patrick Mahomes to have over 300 passing yards in a game is zero. Those two bets are completely unrelated.

However, if you have two bets that are Stephen Curry over 29.5 points and Draymond Green over 7.5 assists, there is high positive correlation there.

If Draymond is getting over 7.5 assists, then it’s likely many of those 8+ are to Steph, which means he’s more likely to score over 29.5 points.

For the Mahomes example, if the two bets are Mahomes to throw for over 300 yards and the Chiefs to score over 27.5 points, those two are also very positively correlated.

An example of clear negative correlation would be a bet on Mahomes throwing over 2.5 touchdowns and at the same time betting on Travis Kelce NOT to score a touchdown.

If Mahomes is throwing 3+, it’s very likely at least one will go to Kelce.

Obviously, to be a profitable bettor you want positive correlation without paying the extra price.

PrizePicks, for example, won’t let you include props from a starting pitcher and batters of the team he’s facing in the same entry.

However, including Angels teammates Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani to both go over or under their hitting player props will have positive correlation, and is allowed on DFS sites as long as the entry includes players from another team as well.

Think about how PrizePicks and Underdog offer fantasy score props. If Ohtani is batting second in the order and Trout is batting third, there’s high correlation. Say Ohtani gets a double, and Trout hits a single to knock him in. You’ll get points for Ohtani for his double and a run scored, and Trout for a hit and an RBI.

On the flip side, if Ohtani fails to reach base then Trout can’t get an RBI without hitting a home run.

In hockey, if you bet on a player’s over shots on goal prop and the opposite goaltender’s over saves prop, that would have clear positive correlation. More shots = more save opportunities.

Remember, this doesn’t mean that isolated, one of the bets is more likely to hit than usual. But IF bet A wins, it makes bet B more or less likely to win.

Some correlation isn’t as obvious as you’d think. For example, the Chiefs are playing the Chargers. Your first bet is on the Chiefs to score 35+ points, and the second bet is on Justin Herbert to throw for 300+ yards.

You may think that’s a negative correlation, but it’s actually positive. If the Chiefs are scoring that many points, they are likely scoring quickly and creating a lot of possessions for Herbert to have a chance to throw.

Additionally, if the Chiefs are scoring that many points they are likely to be winning in the second half, which would make the Chargers throw the ball at a higher rate in order to complete a comeback. Regardless of if the comeback is successful, Herbert’s extra passing attempts will likely lead to more passing yards.

In golf, there can also be a strong correlation between player props. If the weather all of a sudden (so not factored into the lines) gets terribly windy, every player is more likely to struggle and go over their total strokes. If it’s calm and the course is playing easy, everyone is more likely to go under their total strokes.

Always keep correlation in mind when placing bets on the same game or event, as it’s ultimately up to you how much you want to factor it in to your decision making.

For example, most of the bets I place personally come straight from the OddsJam Positive Expected Value page.

Imagine hypothetically that there’s a Red Sox vs. Yankees game. I might see Yankees pitcher Gerrit Cole over 7.5 strikeouts AND Red Sox moneyline on the EV page from separate sportsbooks.

It’s clear negative correlation for them both to hit. If Cole goes over 7.5 strikeouts, he’s likely having a dominant outing and shutting the Red Sox down as well. I would never want to parlay those together.

On the other hand, it’s incredibly likely that at least ONE of the bets hit. If Cole goes under it’s likely the Red Sox win. If the Red Sox lose, it’s likely because Cole went over.

For me personally, if both of those bets were at plus odds, I would take them each straight and hope to at least go 1-1 and earn a small profit.

Please feel free to contact us with any questions you have about correlation or any other sports betting concept.