Description

A Poisson calculator is utilized by sharp bettors to determine the probability of a particular prop bet hitting. For example, if Devin Booker averages 2.7 made three pointers per game, you can use the Poisson calculator to estimate the probability and implied “fair odds” of Devin Booker making 4+ threes in a game. The Poisson calculator is very powerful for this reason - it helps you estimate win probabilities for particular bets based on averages.

Let’s say a sportsbook is offering a prop bet on Devin Booker over 3.5 made threes at +280 odds. Based on historical averages, you know the average for Devin Booker is 2.7 3’s per game. Is this bet mathematically profitable?

Assuming 3 pointers follow a Poisson distribution, which makes sense mathematically, the probability of Booker having over 3.5 made threes is 28.6%, implying “fair” odds of +250. Thus, Booker over 3.5 made threes at +280 odds would be a mathematically profitable bet. You are getting odds above the fair price (+280 > +250) implied by the Poisson distribution. This is why a Poisson calculator is so critical as a sharp sports bettor.