Twelve Last Minute Player Prop Bets for Tonight – Sharp NBA, NHL & MLB Picks

Value everywhere…

As sharp bettors, we’re always looking for an “edge” (e.g. an advantage). In this article, I’m going to run you through twelve last minute player prop bets that I locked in for tonight.

Pick #1: Ryan Noda Under 0.5 Bases on No House Advantage

The first player prop bet that I locked in for tonight is Ryan Noda u0.5 Bases on No House Advantage (NHA).

No House Advantage is a new & unique sports betting platform. Unlike traditional sportsbooks, No House Advantage does not vary payouts based on the picks you select. Any 5 pick entry with insurance will have the following payout structure:

• 5/5 Picks Correct: 12x Payout
• 4/5 Picks Correct: 2.6x Payout

You can see this “Payout Multiplier” in the screenshot below from No House Advantage.

You could take all overs, all unders, all NBA picks, all golf picks, or some combination – it doesn’t matter. Any 5 pick entry on No House Advantage will follow this payout structure.

I broke down the math behind No House Advantage in this Google Spreadsheet. Long story short, if you want to make money on No House Advantage, then you need to win at least 53.3% of your player prop picks. It’s that simple. If you’re able to win 55% of your picks, then you’ll be profitable on NHA. If you can only win 51% of your picks, then you’ll lose money on NHA long-term.

Recreational sports bettors who have no advantage will only be able to win 50% of their over/unders – that’s what No House Advantage is banking on.

However, there’s a simple strategy for finding player props with win rates above 53.3%. It all boils down to following sportsbook odds, and that gets us back to Ryan Noda under 0.5 Bases.

I found this MLB prop on the OddsJam Positive EV Tool. As seen in the screenshot above, all sportsbooks have Ryan Noda’s under heavily favored (around -140 odds). Thus, the betting market is telling you that Noda is a lot more likely to go under as opposed to over.

Since No House Advantage does not vary payouts based on us selecting under vs. over, we obviously want to take the under on NHA, as the under has a much higher win probability according to the sportsbooks.

As sharp bettors, we treat each sportsbook as a data point on where the line should be set. In this example, every data point is telling us that Noda’s under is heavily favored. Just follow the data…

The OddsJam Fantasy Screen is the second betting tool that I use to find profitable picks on No House Advantage. Just like the Positive EV Tool, everything is based in sportsbook odds. There’s no BS, no fluff – just raw data…

The Fantasy Screen quantifies the win probability for each pick based on sportsbook odds. As an example, -200 odds means a 2:1 betting favorite (e.g. means 66.67% or 2/3 to win). A bet that is -300 on sportsbooks means a 3:1 betting favorite (e.g. 3/4 to win, or 75%).

Again, you need to win over 53.3% of your player prop picks on NHA to be profitable long-term. The Fantasy Screen highlights all of the player props that have win rates above 53.3% for No House Advantage.

As an example, I included Tyrese Maxey under 3.5 rebounds in my No House Advantage entry for tonight. As seen on the Fantasy Screen, all sportsbooks have Maxey’s under 3.5 rebounds heavily favored, and this bet has a win rate of 54.31%.

My No House Advantage entry can seen above. I’m staking $200 to win $2,400 if all 5 picks cash. Again, if I go 4/5, I will still get a 2.6x payout (e.g. $520).

All of my player prop picks were found on either the Positive EV Tool or the Fantasy Screen.

Pick #2: Vegas Golden Knights Under 3.5 Team Total Goals at -130 Odds on Fliff Sportsbook

My second pick is the Golden Knights under 3.5 Team Total at -130 odds on Fliff. I found this NHL pick on the OddsJam Positive EV Tool, which also works for betting on traditional sportsbooks.

As seen in the screenshot above, we’re getting clear value on No House Advantage at -130 odds. Just look at the “prices” (e.g. odds) on this prop bet on other sportsbooks:

1. FanDuel -160 odds
2. Caesars -169 odds
3. DraftKings -160 odds
4. BetFred -155 odds

All other data points (e.g. sportsbooks posting odds) have the under much more favored. Getting -130 on Fliff = clear value.

I locked in this NHL prop bet in a two pick parlay on Fliff sportsbook. I’m staking $250 to win a total payout of $1,083.65. My second pick is over 13 runs in Brewers vs Rockies, and I also found this MLB bet on the OddsJam Positive EV Tool.

Value is all that matters as a sports bettor. A lot of people overcomplicate sports betting, and I’m not sure why… As an investor, you look for value. As a trader, you look for value. You’re hunting for “inefficiencies” in the market & spots where you can get an “edge.” In sports betting, it’s no different… But what’s amazing about sports betting is that you have dozens of data points (e.g. books posting odds) telling you exactly where a line should be set. Thus, it’s easy to find value in the sports betting market compared to, say, the real estate market.

Finally, I have a variety of point spread bets on the Philadelphia 76ers for Game 2. Joel Embiid is back! Lines have been ripping towards the 76ers, and Fliff is “stale” and offering far too much value on a variety of point spread bets on the 76ers.

Fliff allows maximum bet sizes of $250, so I locked in each point spread wager for the max I could. I have five point spread bets on the Philadelphia 76ers, which is $1,250 total.