Positive Expected Value Betting: What Makes a Bet Good?

Have you ever wondered… what makes a bet good?

As an example, imagine betting a coin flip where the coin is 53% to land Heads, and 47% Tails. If we’re flipping that coin for $100 (e.g. you win or lose $100), you’d of course want to bet on Heads.

Why? Because Heads is the more likely outcome.

Back to sports, here’s an example of a profitable coin flip on Circa sportsbook (e.g. a Positive EV bet): Braves vs Dodgers Over 0.5 1st Inning Runs at +100 Odds.

Placing a bet at +100 odds is like flipping a coin for $100. If the coin shows up Heads (e.g. your bet wins), you profit $100. If the coin shows up Tails (e.g. your bet loses), you lose $100.

Now look at the odds on all other sportsbooks.

1. Caesars: -130 odds over 0.5 runs, +100 odds on the under. They have the over favored.
2. FanDuel: -120 over/-106 under. They also have the over as the more likely outcome.
3. DraftKings: -120 over/-110 under. Once again, the over is favored.

Aside from Circa, every single sportsbook has the over 0.5 runs as the favored or more likely outcome, as reflected through their odds.

So the over 0.5 runs is like Heads in our coin flip example – it’s the more likely outcome. Betting the over 0.5 runs at +100 odds on Circa is like flipping a coin for $100 when the coin is weighted in your favor.

Positive EV (+EV) bets are just profitable bets. Honestly, that’s really all they are — just data-driven, mathematically profitable bets. OddsJam is processing millions of odds in real time to find these bets for you.

To be clear, most bets are not +EV. That’s why sportsbooks are in business, and most sports bettors lose money. However, OddsJam finds the 0.01% of betting opportunities that are actually profitable (e.g., where a sportsbook is giving odds that are too good to be true).

The stock market returns roughly 8% year over year (on average), and with +EV betting, you can earn returns of over 3% every single day.

These compounding results can make you significant money in sports betting, and you’ll be watching your bankroll skyrocket.