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$5,000 MLB Parlay – 5 Sharp Prop Bets for Tuesday, May 16
AP Photos
We have 15 MLB games on Tuesday, May 16. In this betting preview, I’m going to run through a 5 pick MLB parlay. I have five player props to win $5,000.
In these betting previews, I’m just showing you what I’m putting my own money on – where I’m finding value, where I’m finding an edge… This MLB parlay is on a new sportsbook called JockMKT.
Try selecting another state for sportsbook suggestions
You never know which sportsbook is going to “slip up” and offer profitable bets on a given day. That’s why it’s critical to have multiple sportsbook accounts. I recommend signing up for at least 5 online bookmakers in your location.
Today, a variety of profitable bets are on JockMKT. Tomorrow, the value may be on FanDuel, PrizePicks, DraftKings, Underdog Fantasy or another online bookmaker. More = merrier in sports betting, so get more sportsbook accounts!
Signing up for more sportsbook accounts is the #1 piece of advice that I have for new bettors who are serious about making money. I’ve used over 40 online bookmakers since I started sports betting.
How does JockMKT work?
JockMKT is a fixed payout fantasy sports platform – basically, you need to win over 54.25% of your prop bets (e.g. over/unders) to make money on this DFS platform. Most bettors have no “edge” (e.g. advantage). Having no advantage means you’ll win 50%, lose 50% of your player prop over/unders. That won’t cut it on JockMKT…
I broke down the math behind JockMKT in this Google Spreadsheet. Regardless, this ROI table summarizes JockMKT pretty well… Remember that winning 50% of your player prop over/unders means that you have zero advantage.
It all boils to win rate on JockMKT – what percentage of your player prop picks can you win?
| Win % | Loss % | ROI |
| 50% | 50% | -25.0% |
| 52% | 48% | -13.9% |
| 54% | 46% | -1.6% |
| 56% | 44% | 11.9% |
| 58% | 42% | 26.9% |
| 60% | 40% | 43.4% |
Long story short, to be profitable on JockMKT, you simply want to find player props that are winning above 54.25% of the time. If you do that, then you’ll be profitable on this fantasy sports platform.
It’s really that simple… If you win 55% of your picks, then you’ll profitable. If you win only 51% of your player props, then you’ll be unprofitable on JockMKT.
MLB Pick #1: Manny Machado Under 0.5 Runs in Padres vs Royals
My first MLB Pick for Tuesday, May 16 is Manny Machado u0.5 Runs. I found this sharp MLB prop on the OddsJam Fantasy Optimizer (bets in green = profitable).
As seen in the screenshot above, Machado under 0.5 runs has a win rate of 54.81%. This win rate is above 54.25%, so Machado u0.5 runs is a profitable MLB player prop to include in a JockMKT entry.
The Fantasy Optimizer simply uses raw data (e.g. sportsbook odds) to calculate win probabilities. As screen in the screenshot below from Caesars sportsbook, Machado’s under 0.5 runs is the heavily favored outcome at -152 odds. According to all of the data points in the betting market (e.g. sportsbooks posting odds), Machado is a lot more likely to go under 0.5 runs as opposed to over.
I locked in 5 total MLB player props on JockMKT. My 5 MLB player prop bets for Tuesday, May 16 are:
- M. Taylor Under 0.5 Hits
- J. Cronenworth Under 0.5 Runs
- M. Machado Under 0.5 Runs
- C. Walker Under 0.5 Singles
- J. Trevino Under 0.5 Singles
All of these sharp MLB prop bets were found on the OddsJam Fantasy Optimizer. I’m simply following the data…
As seen in the screenshot below, which gets cut off, I’m staking $500 to win $5,000 if all 5 picks win.
