As you can see in the screenshot above, Fliff is the only sportsbook that’s listing Skubal over 5.5 strikeouts at plus odds. Every other book has the over in the -105 to -120s range.
If we look at FanDuel, they have the same odds for both the over and the under at -112. That means they’re implying that both the over and the under have an equal chance of winning, so 50% for both.
In other words, this is a coin flip…but imagine you were given +115 odds on a coin flip. Say you bet $10 on heads 10 times and it lands on heads five times, as expected. You’ll lose $10 five times on tails, so -$50 total. Then on the five winners, you’ll win $11.50, so $57.50 in total. After the 10 flips, you’ll be up $7.50 ($57.50-$50). This is exactly what positive EV betting is.
Not every bet is going to win, but when we have a mathematical advantage through the odds then we will profit in the long run.
The Positive EV Tool simply points out value (e.g. large line discrepancies that create these advantages). It is constantly providing bets that will allow you to actually beat the sportsbooks long-term.
As a sharp sports bettor, I am constantly reading into what the markets are telling me and finding the best value. I take that knowledge and find the best possible price for this bet in the form of a line discrepancy.
If you want to try out this sharp betting software for yourself, give our seven-day free trial a go here.
