It’s Tuesday, which means it’s Taco Tuesday on PrizePicks! This is one of my favorite recurring promotions on any sportsbook or DFS site. Each Tuesday, PrizePicks chooses a few props throughout the day to discount as a “taco.”
Today, the first taco is Tyler Glasnow’s strikeout total discounted from 7.5 to 5.5. Two strikeouts makes a massive difference, and everyone should be sure to place a PrizePicks entry including Glasnow before it expires in a couple of hours.
If you haven’t signed up for PrizePicks yet, use promo code “ODDSJAM” for a deposit match up to $100 on your first deposit. It’s easy money!
To find the other props to include in my entry, I used the profitable betting tools here at OddsJam. Let’s get into an example.
Pick #1: Nneka Ogwumike Under 30 Points + Rebounds
As you can see in the screenshot above, PrizePicks is an outlier from the rest of the market on this prop. ParlayPlay has Ogwumike’s points + rebounds all the way down at 28.5. A difference of 1.5 may not seem like a lot, but it makes a huge difference.
Imagine if she gets 20 points and 9 rebounds…that’s 29 points + rebounds. We would win our under on PrizePicks, while people who took the under on ParlayPlay would lose.
To be profitable at PrizePicks, you need to be winning your bets 54.25% of the time. Any bet with a higher percent chance to win than that, like in our example above, is mathematically profitable.
PrizePicks knows that most sports bettors have zero “edge” (or advantage) – they’ll will win 50%, lose 50% of their player prop over/unders. Thus, recreational bettors with no edge will lose money on PrizePicks long-term, as they can’t win their player props above 54.25% of the time.
Finding line discrepancies like this one helps us turn a coin flip prop into one that will win over 54.25% of the time, making us profitable on PrizePicks.
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