Locking in this Sharp MLB Under Prop on Fliff in Pirates vs. Mariners on May 28, 2023

I have been finding a ton of mathematically profitable picks on Fliff and that continues today with this sharp pitching prop. This play has insane value compared to other sportsbooks, so be sure to lock this one in before the lines move.

Follow me on Twitter @AlexMonahan100 for more free sharp picks like this one!

Pick: Luis Ortiz Under 5.5 Strikeouts

As a sharp sports bettor, I am always reading what the market is telling us. In this example, sportsbooks are heavily favoring Ortiz to go under 5.5 strikeouts, as opposed to over. Check out this pick from the OddsJam Positive EV page:

Every other sportsbook has this bet at over -200 odds, which is an implied probability of 66.67%. Fliff is offering us this same prop at -165, which is all the way down to 62.26%. We are getting over 5% of value with this play.

Using the Positive EV page is one of the primary ways I have made so much money sports betting. It constantly displays bets that are beating the no-vig odds from the sportsbooks. The vig is essentially a fee that sportsbooks charge for every bet(for example, -110 odds on a spread bet is charging a $10 vig because the implied odds of the bet hitting would actually be +100).

As you can see at the top right of the screen, the no-vig odds for this pick are -170.74. We are getting this play at -165, which is obviously better than those odds. This means that our bet has a higher implied probability of winning than the odds we are placing it at.

Trusting the data, like I did with this pick, will result in profit long term. It’s exactly what the sportsbooks don’t want you to do.

Check out this video below where I break down this concept: