Profitable Strikeout Bet for Athletics vs. Guardians: Can the A’s Make Contact?

We all know the Oakland Athletics are not a good baseball team. They’ve lost almost 75% of their games this season and will likely lose tonight as well…but I’m not betting on wins and losses here.

For this bet, all they need to do is consistently put the ball in play.

That seems easy enough, right? See ball, hit ball. We were taught that in Little League. They don’t even have to hit the ball hard! It can be a weak tapper back to Aaron Civale, who is the subject of this bet.

Civale’s strikeout line is set at 5.5, and I found a lot of value on Fliff Social Sportsbook on the under by using the OddsJam Positive Expected Value tool.

First of all, if you aren’t on Fliff yet you can sign up using promo code “ODDSJAM” or directly using this link for a first-purchase match up to $100.

Now, back to the bet.

Athletics vs. Guardians Pick: Aaron Civale Under 5.5 Strikeouts | +110 at Fliff

Take a look at this screenshot below.

There’s a wide variety of sportsbooks shown, and Fliff is the ONLY one offering plus odds. Not only that, but they’re all the way at +110. DraftKings has each side of this bet at -115, which means they think there’s an equal chance he goes over and under. An equal chance means a 50% win rate.

If we can get +110 odds on bets with a 50% win rate, we will be profitable in the long run.

Think about it: let’s say you bet $100 at +110 odds 100 times, and you know you will win half of them.

50 of the bets will lose $100, so that’s -$5000, but then 50 bets will win $110, which is +$5500. $5500 in winnings minus $5000 in losses is a $500 profit, or an average of $5 per bet.

Nobody is going to win every sports bet, but when you find mathematical advantages like this one and consistently place these profitable bets, you will be a winning sports bettor over a large sample size.

The Positive EV Tool is pretty simple to use – you just hit the betting picks in green & bold. So in the screenshot above, Civale’s under 5.5 on Fliff is bolded and highlighted in green, suggesting you bet the under at that specific sportsbook.

The Positive EV Tool shows you these profitable bets in one place, and is just based in data – sportsbook odds. Long story short, OddsJam takes the “fluff” out of sports betting on Fliff and every other sportsbook and DFS site.