Subscribe to our newsletter
We'll send you bets and resources to help you profit
Last Minute Player Prop Bet for Celtics vs Heat
AP Photos
It’s a must win game for the Boston Celtics…
I locked in a last minute player prop bet for Game 4 on Fliff Sportsbook. I’m on Jayson Tatum over 10.5 Rebounds at +105 odds.
This NBA prop was found on the OddsJam Positive EV Betting Tool (picks in green/bold = profitable). The Positive EV Betting Tool is simple – it just points out value in the market.
As seen in the screenshot above, Fliff is the only sportsbook offering Tatum over 10.5 rebounds above -115 odds… Just look at the prices (e.g. odds) on Tatum over 10.5 rebounds on other sportsbooks:
- FanDuel -124 odds
- Caesars -131 odds
- DraftKings -125 odds
Every other sportsbook has Tatum’s over 10.5 rebounds as the heavily favored outcome. The average price on Tatum o10.5 rebounds is -121 odds, so getting this play at +105 is crazy value!
As seen in the line movement chart above from OddsJam, other sportsbooks have been ripping Tatum’s line in favor of his over 10.5 rebounds. For example, DraftKings sportsbook dropped the odds on Tatum o10.5 rebounds from +105 to -125 within the past few hours.
Clearly, all of the betting market is projecting a higher probability of Tatum going over 10.5 rebounds. Fliff is asleep at the wheel still offering this play at +105…
As sharp bettors, we treat every sportsbook as a data point on where the line should be set. Since books set lines independently (e.g. each book has different odds), we are hunting for inefficiencies (e.g. value) in the market.
I locked in this NBA player prop on Fliff for $250, which is the maximum betting stake allowed on this sportsbook. I’m betting $250 to win a total payout of $512.49 if Tatum has 11+ rebounds.
