Line Movement: A “No Brainer” MLB Bet for this Afternoon

Sportsbooks can change odds at any moment…

Around 10:45AM EST, official lineups were announced for the Cardinals vs Reds game. First pitch in this game is set for 12:35PM EST.

Lines started ripping towards Cincinnati once lineups were released. As seen in the line movement chart below from OddsJam, sportsbooks moved the moneyline odds on the Reds from approximately +150 to +110.

Since sportsbooks all set lines independently (e.g. each book has different odds), line movements often yield profitable betting opportunities. Some books don’t adjust lines enough; they don’t stay in line with the market.

As seen in the screenshot below from the Positive EV Tool, Fliff was “stale” and did not adjust lines enough in favor of Cincinnati. Other books all dropped the moneyline odds on the Reds to around +112ish, but Fliff only dropped the Reds to +125.

As sharp bettors, we treat every sportsbook as a data point on where the line should be set.

Here, it’s clear that Fliff is offering too much value on the Reds moneyline at +125 odds. After lineup announcements, the rest of the market adjusted to pricing the Reds around +112. Fliff was asleep at the wheel still offering this play at +125.

I locked in this MLB bet on Fliff for $250, which is the maximum stake allowed on this sportsbook. I’m betting $250 to win a total payout of $562.50.