MLB Best Bets Friday 10/11/24

Welcome to today’s edition of MLB Best Bets, where we break down the key matchups and player props for this MLB playoff slate. With intense postseason action and a win-or-go-home mentality for these teams, we’re diving into the best opportunities to make some profitable bets.

I’ll be analyzing a crucial Game 5 between the Padres and the Dodgers, providing insights on the best bets to target, and explaining why these are the top plays for today’s slate.

Key Matchup: Padres at Dodgers – Game 5 NLDS

The Dodgers and Padres are locked in a fierce battle as they head into Game 5 of the NLDS, tied 2-2. The Dodgers are at home, favored at -140, with the total set at 7.5. While both teams have seen strong performances from their starting pitching, today’s game is all about which offense can deliver in the clutch.

Suggested Bet: Padres Team Total Over 3.5 (-110)

• Analysis: With U Darvish on the mound for the Padres and Yamamoto starting for the Dodgers, both teams will be relying on their pitchers to keep the opposing bats at bay. However, the Padres have been exceptional against pitchers who rely on fastballs and splitters, which are two of Yamamoto’s go-to pitches. Over the past 30 days, the Padres rank number one in runs scored against the splitter.
• Why It’s a Best Bet: The Padres have shown their ability to put up runs in this series, scoring 12 and 11 in Games 1 and 3, respectively. Despite a lackluster showing in Game 4, their bats have the power to erupt at any time. In a do-or-die scenario, expect San Diego to push the pace and exceed their team total of 3.5 runs.

Player Props to Target

1. Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-125)

• Analysis: Tatis Jr. has been a leader for the Padres throughout the playoffs, stepping up in critical moments. In this game, he’s coming off a rough performance but has historically bounced back when the stakes are high.
• Why It’s a Best Bet: Tatis Jr. has a 61% success rate in hitting this mark against the Dodgers, and his high-energy approach in clutch situations gives him multiple avenues to cash this prop. Whether it’s through getting on base, driving in runs, or scoring himself, Tatis is the type of player who thrives when everything is on the line.

2. Manny Machado Over 1.5 Total Bases (-115)

• Analysis: Machado has been one of the most consistent hitters for the Padres and is seeing the ball well. His line-drive approach and ability to hit to all fields make him a threat to accumulate bases.
• Why It’s a Best Bet: Machado has had multiple games in this series where he’s tallied at least two total bases. Given the circumstances and his veteran presence, this is a solid spot for him to reach base multiple times, either through extra-base hits or multiple singles.

Total Bet: Game Total Over 7.5 Runs (-105)

• Analysis: Although both teams have strong pitchers starting today, the offenses are too explosive to keep under wraps. In a winner-takes-all game, expect both teams to turn up the heat.
• Why It’s a Best Bet: Previous games in this series have shown that when these offenses click, the runs pile up quickly. With nerves high and both teams knowing that every run counts, we should see a higher-scoring game than the books are projecting.

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