MLB Best Bets Friday 5/17/24

Identifying the top bets in MLB requires careful analysis of matchups, player statistics, and recent performances. Today’s slate offers some intriguing opportunities. Here are the top five MLB best bets for today, with key insights into each matchup to help you make informed decisions.

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1. Milwaukee Brewers Moneyline vs. Houston Astros

Insights:

• Pitching Edge: Freddy Peralta (MIL) vs. Hunter Brown (HOU)
  • Peralta: 28.2% K% vs. LHP, 34.3% K% vs. RHP
  • Brown: 26.8% K% vs. LHP, 25.3% K% vs. RHP, 5.97 ERA
• Brewers’ Offensive Edge:
  • Key hitters like Christian Yelich and William Contreras can exploit Brown’s struggles.
  • Milwaukee hits fastballs well, which is Brown’s primary pitch.
• Injury Situations: No significant injuries impacting key players on either team.

Why It’s a Best Bet:

• The Brewers have the advantage both on the mound and at the plate. Peralta’s high strikeout rate and the Astros’ struggles against his pitch mix make Milwaukee a strong play.

2. New York Yankees Run Line (-1.5) vs. Chicago White Sox

Insights:

• Pitching Edge: Nestor Cortes (NYY) vs. Mike Clevinger (CWS)
  • Cortes: 30.1% K% vs. LHP, 23.2% K% vs. RHP
  • Clevinger: 18.7% K% vs. LHP, 20.7% K% vs. RHP, .205 ISO vs. LHP
• Yankees’ Offensive Power:
  • Aaron Judge: .316 ISO, .456 xwOBA
  • Anthony Rizzo and Anthony Volpe can take advantage of Clevinger’s high ISO against lefties.
• Injury Situations: No significant injuries impacting key players on either team.

Why It’s a Best Bet:

• The Yankees’ powerful lineup and Cortes’ dominance on the mound create a strong case for the Yankees to cover the run line against a struggling Clevinger.

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3. Atlanta Braves Moneyline vs. San Diego Padres

Insights:

• Pitching Edge: Max Fried (ATL) vs. Matt Waldron (SD)
  • Fried: 22.8% K% vs. LHP, 24.0% K% vs. RHP
  • Waldron: 17.0% K% vs. LHP, 20.8% K% vs. RHP, high ISO numbers against both sides
• Braves’ Offensive Edge:
  • Ronald Acuña Jr.: .231 ISO, .440 xwOBA
  • Matt Olson: .314 ISO, .406 xwOBA
• Injury Situations: No significant injuries impacting key players on either team.

Why It’s a Best Bet:

• The Braves have the upper hand with Fried on the mound and a powerful lineup that can handle Waldron’s knuckleball. Atlanta’s recent form also supports this bet.

4. Minnesota Twins First Five Innings Moneyline vs. Cleveland Guardians

Insights:

• Pitching Edge: Simeon Woods Richardson (MIN) vs. Triston McKenzie (CLE)
  • Woods Richardson: 20.0% K% vs. LHP, 23.1% K% vs. RHP
  • McKenzie: 14.9% K% vs. LHP, 25.8% K% vs. RHP
• Twins’ Offensive Power:
  • The Twins hit fastballs well, which is McKenzie’s primary pitch.
  • Edouard Julien: .218 ISO, .349 xwOBA
  • Ryan Jeffers: .237 ISO, .345 xwOBA
• Injury Situations: No significant injuries impacting key players on either team.

Why It’s a Best Bet:

• The Twins have an edge early in the game with Woods Richardson on the mound and their proficiency against fastballs, giving them a solid chance to lead after five innings.

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5. Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels Over 9 Runs

Insights:

• Pitching Matchup: Tyler Anderson (LAA) vs. Andrew Heaney (TEX)
  • Anderson: 17.9% K%, 13.8% BB%, .220 ISO vs. LHP
  • Heaney: 20.0% K%, 16.1% BB%, .132 ISO vs. LHP
• Offensive Potential:
  • Corey Seager (TEX): .195 ISO, .336 xwOBA
  • Marcus Semien (TEX): .168 ISO, .351 xwOBA
  • Taylor Ward (LAA): .214 ISO, .362 xwOBA
• Injury Situations: No significant injuries impacting key players on either team.

Why It’s a Best Bet:

• Both pitchers have struggled, and the lineups feature power hitters capable of capitalizing on these weaknesses. Expect a high-scoring affair with both offenses producing runs.

Final Thoughts

Today’s best bets focus on matchups where one team has a clear edge in pitching and hitting. Whether you’re looking at the Brewers’ pitching dominance, the Yankees’ power lineup, or the high-scoring potential in Texas, these bets offer strong value.

Make sure to use resources like Oddsjam to identify the most reliable bets and maximize your DFS and betting picks. Good luck!