MLB Best Bets Monday 10/7/24

Baseball playoffs are heating up, and today we have two crucial matchups to dive into. I’ll walk you through my best bets, providing clear reasoning and detailed analysis for each pick. These aren’t just bets; they’re carefully analyzed leans with key insights to help you understand why these plays make sense today.

Let’s get right into it!

1. Guardians vs. Tigers

Suggested Bet: Guardians Moneyline (+110)

• Pitching Matchup: Tariq Skubal (DET) vs. Matthew Boyd (CLE)
• Analysis: This one is all about fading the Tigers’ offense rather than betting against Skubal, who has been lights out lately. Despite Skubal’s excellence, Detroit has been flat against left-handed pitching. They’re batting just .197 against lefties over the past month, with a wRC+ of 67—ranking them fourth-worst in the league.
  • Key Points:
    • Tigers are struggling offensively against lefties, striking out over 32% of the time in the last 30 days.
    • Matthew Boyd has been solid, especially at home, with his strikeout rate jumping to almost 30% in those appearances.
    • Cleveland’s offense has looked lively, with a .277 batting average against lefties over the last 30 days, ranking them fifth-best in MLB.
  • Takeaway: The Guardians’ offense is better positioned to take advantage of today’s matchup. With Boyd and the Tigers’ hitters struggling, Cleveland holds the edge despite facing Skubal’s challenging presence.

Player Prop Bet: Matthew Boyd Over 11.5 Outs

• Analysis: Boyd is in a good spot against a Tigers team that can’t figure out left-handed pitching. He should be able to manage four innings, which gives us the 12 outs needed to cash this prop.

2. Yankees vs. Royals

Suggested Bet: Yankees Moneyline (-150)

• Pitching Matchup: Carlos Rodón (NYY) vs. Cole Ragans (KC)
• Analysis: The Yankees are heavy favorites here, and for good reason. Carlos Rodón has been dominant at home, especially against this Royals lineup. He’s held them to a .228 average over 111 plate appearances with an expected slugging percentage of just .361.
  • Key Points:
    • Royals hitters have struggled against fastballs, sliders, and changeups—Rodón’s primary pitches—ranking near the bottom in runs above average for each.
    • Cole Ragans has been good on the road but still might struggle against a Yankees lineup that has proven they can handle left-handed pitching.
  • Takeaway: While the Royals had a surprising performance in Game 1, the Yankees still hold the advantage on the mound and have the firepower needed to make quick work of Ragans.

Player Prop Bet: Vinnie Pasquantino Under 1.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-135)

• Analysis: Pasquantino has had trouble against lefties on the road, hitting the under in 77% of such games this season. With Rodón’s ability to dominate left-handed batters, this is a spot to expect Pasquantino to struggle.

Team Total Bet: Yankees Over 3.5 Runs

• Analysis: The Yankees have been getting solid production from their offense, and with Ragans likely to be on a shorter leash today, New York can capitalize on the Royals bullpen, pushing their run total over 3.5.

Win more bets with Oddsjam

If you’re looking to make the most out of today’s action, consider using Oddsjam to elevate your betting and fantasy picks. It’s designed to help you quickly identify the most reliable bets for today’s games, with tools like Promo Finder, Arbitrage Bets, and Positive Expected Value (+EV) Bets.

Maximize your betting potential with Oddsjam—unlock industry-leading tools, free coaching sessions, and even a 7-day free trial. Don’t leave money on the table; let’s make every bet count!

Today’s Best Bets Recap:

• Guardians Moneyline (+110)
• Yankees Moneyline (-150)
• Player Prop: Matthew Boyd Over 11.5 Outs
• Player Prop: Vinnie Pasquantino Under 1.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs
• Team Total Bet: Yankees Over 3.5 Runs

Let’s get it today, and as always, keep an eye on the pinned comment for any updates. Good luck and happy betting!