MLB Best Bets Monday 6/17/24

Welcome to today’s MLB Best Bets! We’re diving into the top plays for today’s slate, breaking down key insights, and explaining why each player and team stands out.

Let’s maximize our betting and fantasy picks using Oddsjam to identify the most reliable bets. Here are the top 5 MLB Best Bets for today:

1. Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds – 6:40 PM EDT – PNC Park

Bet: Pittsburgh Pirates Moneyline (-188)

Key Insights:

• Paul Skenes: The Pirates’ ace is a dominant force with a 2.43 ERA and a 35% strikeout rate. His ability to limit walks (5%) and induce ground balls (51%) makes him a reliable option.
• Carson Spiers: While Spiers has shown potential, his 4.18 ERA and 19% strikeout rate don’t inspire the same confidence. The Reds’ offense has been inconsistent, and their bullpen struggles further support the Pirates’ advantage.
• Pirates’ Offense: The Pirates have a .312 wOBA vs. RHP, which gives them a slight edge against Spiers.

Why This Bet:

The Pirates have a clear pitching advantage with Skenes on the mound. His consistent performance and ability to dominate hitters make Pittsburgh the safer bet. The Reds’ offensive struggles and bullpen issues further tip the scales in favor of the Pirates.

2. Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres – 6:40 PM EDT – Citizens Bank Park

Bet: Philadelphia Phillies Moneyline (-172)

Key Insights:

• Cristopher Sanchez: Sanchez boasts a solid 3.29 ERA and a 3.82 xERA. His 58% ground ball rate and 23% strikeout rate indicate his ability to control the game.
• Randy Vasquez: Vasquez has a troubling 5.93 xERA and .377 xwOBA, highlighting his struggles this season. The Padres’ offense has been underperforming, which further favors Sanchez.
• Phillies’ Offense: Philadelphia has a potent offense with a .342 wOBA vs. LHP, making them a formidable opponent for Vasquez.

Why This Bet:

Sanchez’s ability to limit damage and induce ground balls, combined with the Phillies’ strong offense, makes them a strong pick. The Padres’ recent struggles and Vasquez’s inconsistency further support backing the Phillies.

3. St. Louis Cardinals vs. Miami Marlins – 6:40 PM EDT – LoanDepot Park

Bet: St. Louis Cardinals Moneyline (-156)

Key Insights:

• Sonny Gray: Gray has been excellent with a 2.85 ERA and a 27% strikeout rate. His ability to generate ground balls (47%) and limit walks (7%) makes him a reliable option.
• Braxton Garrett: Garrett has a higher 4.06 ERA and a 40% hard contact rate, indicating potential struggles against a capable Cardinals lineup.
• Cardinals’ Offense: Although inconsistent, the Cardinals have enough firepower to capitalize on Garrett’s weaknesses.

Why This Bet:

Gray’s consistency and ability to control the game, coupled with Garrett’s vulnerability, give the Cardinals a significant edge. Despite some offensive struggles, the Cardinals should manage to outscore the Marlins, especially with Garrett’s recent performance.

4. Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox – 7:07 PM EDT – Rogers Centre

Bet: Toronto Blue Jays Moneyline (-126)

Key Insights:

• Yusei Kikuchi: Kikuchi has a solid 3.67 ERA and a balanced 25% strikeout rate. His recent performances against strong teams indicate his ability to handle tough matchups.
• Nick Pivetta: Pivetta’s 4.00 ERA and 8% walk rate show inconsistency. While he has a high strikeout rate, his vulnerability to giving up runs is a concern.
• Blue Jays’ Offense: Toronto’s offense has shown improvement, and their .291 wOBA vs. RHP gives them a slight edge against Pivetta.

Why This Bet:

Kikuchi’s recent strong outings and the Blue Jays’ improving offense make them a solid pick. Pivetta’s inconsistency and the Red Sox’s potential for a letdown after facing tougher opponents further support backing Toronto.

5. Atlanta Braves vs. Detroit Tigers – 7:20 PM EDT – Truist Park

Bet: Atlanta Braves Run Line (-1.5) (+100)

Key Insights:

• Max Fried: Fried is an elite pitcher with a 2.88 ERA and a 24% strikeout rate. His 59% ground ball rate indicates his ability to limit damage.
• Reese Olson: Olson’s recent struggles (4.03 xERA) and inconsistency raise concerns, especially against a strong Braves lineup.
• Braves’ Offense: Atlanta has a potent offense with a .320 wOBA vs. RHP, making them a formidable opponent for Olson.

Why This Bet:

Fried’s dominance and the Braves’ strong offense make the run line a valuable bet. Olson’s recent struggles and the Tigers’ offensive inconsistencies give the Braves a clear edge.

These are your top 5 MLB Best Bets for today’s slate. Each pick is backed by solid pitching matchups and key insights. Maximize your betting and fantasy picks with Oddsjam, and let’s make today a winning day!