MLB Best Bets Wednesday 10/9/24

We’ve got a fantastic lineup of MLB playoff games today, and I’ve got you covered with the best bets and key insights for each matchup. I’ll break down the games and highlight the top bets, explaining why each player or team is a solid pick for today’s action.

Guardians vs. Tigers – Game 3

• Suggested Bet: Under 7 Total Runs

Why:
Both teams come into this game with bullpens performing at a high level, and neither lineup has been consistently producing runs. Alex Cobb, though limited this season, has shown flashes of dominance, and the Tigers are opting for a bullpen start, which has been effective so far in the playoffs. The Guardians’ offense is heavily reliant on Jose Ramirez, who can be neutralized by the Tigers’ solid bullpen.

• Key Points:
  • Guardians are 45-30-6 to the under on the road this season.
  • Tigers are 43-35-3 to the under at home.
  • Alex Cobb’s last start: 6 innings, 2 hits, and 1 unearned run against Pittsburgh.

This game has all the makings of a low-scoring affair, with each team likely struggling to push runs across the plate.

Phillies vs. Mets – Game 4

• Suggested Bet: Mets Moneyline (+100)

Why:
Jose Quintana has been lights out recently, including a dominant 7-inning shutout performance against the Phillies at the end of the regular season. Meanwhile, Ranger Suarez has been shaky down the stretch and has had trouble keeping the Mets in check. Look for the Mets to capitalize on Suarez’s control issues and build an early lead that their bullpen can hold onto.

• Key Points:
  • Mets are 46-34 at home this season.
  • Suarez’s ERA spiked to 4.35 over his last five starts.
  • Quintana’s last start vs. Phillies: 7 innings, 3 hits, 0 runs, 0 walks, 4 strikeouts.

Expect the Mets’ offense, led by Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso, to continue putting pressure on a Phillies’ pitching staff that has shown vulnerability in the postseason.

Yankees vs. Royals – Game 3

• Suggested Bet: Royals Moneyline (+102)

Why:
The Royals hand the ball to Seth Lugo, who has been dominant in his recent outings. In his last start against the Yankees, he threw 7 innings, giving up just 3 hits and no runs while striking out 10. The Yankees’ lineup has struggled against him, and Clark Schmidt has been inconsistent for New York. The Royals’ offense, despite its ups and downs, has found ways to manufacture runs, making them a strong play as underdogs.

• Key Points:
  • Lugo’s last start vs. Yankees: 7 innings, 3 hits, 0 runs, 10 strikeouts.
  • Yankees’ road record: 50-31 (best in MLB), but struggled in Game 2.
  • Royals’ home record: 45-36, solid home-field advantage.

Look for the Royals to build on the momentum from their Game 2 win and get solid production out of their bullpen to back up Lugo.

Dodgers vs. Padres – Game 4

• Suggested Bet: Over 7.5 Total Runs

Why:
While we don’t have confirmed starters yet, the recent trend in this series has been heavy on the offense. Both teams have shown the ability to put up crooked numbers in a hurry, and neither bullpen has been particularly sharp. Expect the bats to stay hot and this game to push over the total.

• Key Points:
  • Game 3 saw 11 total runs scored.
  • Padres’ hitters, led by Fernando Tatis Jr., are seeing the ball well.
  • Dodgers’ lineup, featuring Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman, should bounce back.

Check the starting pitching matchups before locking in your bet, but early indications are pointing towards another high-scoring game in this series.

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