Sharp MLB Picks for Friday: 4 Best MLB Bets for March 31, Including Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers

Life is good again as we have another beautiful day of baseball ahead! Yesterday, we went 2-2, which isn’t my goal — but we didn’t lose money either.

Today, we leave the past behind and we’ve got four positive expected value (+EV) picks for today in Major League Baseball.

Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers Pick: 1U Dodgers Over 4.5 Runs | +123 at Barstool

10:10 p.m. ET

Yesterday the Dodgers proved they can tee off against this Diamondbacks team. Today, they’ll prove they can do it two nights in a row. +123 at Barstool while every sharp book is closer to +100? I like those odds.

Rockies vs. Padres Pick: 1U Total Runs Under 8.5 | -125 at BetMGM

9:40 p.m. ET

Sometimes you just have to trust the process and the data you’re given. I don’t have an in-depth analysis of these two teams but I can tell you every sharp book has this line past -125.

Hammer it on BetMGM and celebrate tonight!

Rockies vs. Padres Pick: 1U 1st Half Total Runs Under 4 | +120 at Fliff

9:40 p.m. ET

Putting more than one egg in this basket because I’ve had great success on Fliff. Above we took the full game under, here we’re going to take the first half under!

If you haven’t used Fliff before, check out this breakdown. Then, go bet on this line.

Guardians vs. Mariners Pick: 1U Eugenio Suarez Over 0.5 Hits | -125 at FanDuel

10:10 p.m. ET

Ending our picks once again at FanDuel … and someone fell asleep again. -125 is what they have their line set at, sharp books say -139 or better! Seriously, hammer this, grow your bankroll and make money sports betting.

How do I Calculate my Unit Size?

For the most basic bettors, it’s advisable to make your units about 1% of your bankroll, and certainly not more than 2%. So a bettor with a $5,000 bankroll should have units of about $50. That doesn’t mean every bet has to be $50, but it’s the starting point to base your bet sizes on.

There are many strategies for managing your bankroll, but if you are simply betting for some entertainment or have the tiniest of edges, you may place half a unit on a bet, or $25. A base bet would be $50, and then for plays you love and see a bigger edge in you might go to 2% or 3% of your bankroll, which would be two or three units.

A good way to calculate how many units to put on a bet is to use the Kelly Criterion. The Kelly Criterion is a system that bases the amount of your bankroll to put on each bet based on the odds given, and the fair win probability of the bet. You can use OddsJam’s Kelly Criterion Calculator to find your ideal bet size using this method.

Using this calculator, say there’s a bet with a 55% chance of winning and you’re able to get -110 odds. With the Kelly Multiplier set at one, it tells you to risk 5.5% of your bankroll on that one bet. Most bettors aren’t comfortable risking that much of their bankroll at a time, so feel free to set the Kelly multiplier at a fraction of one that you are more comfortable with.

When using the Kelly Criterion calculator, whatever you decide on just remember to always keep the Kelly multiplier consistent across all your bets.