Sharp MLB Picks for Thursday: 4 Best MLB Bets for Opening Day, Including Blue Jays vs. Cardinals

We’re back after an agonizing winter-long hiatus! Opening day is finally here and we’ve got four sharp, positive expected value (+EV) picks for today in Major League Baseball.

Blue Jays vs. Cardinals Pick: 1U Miles Mikolas Over 4.5 Ks | +114 at FanDuel

4:10 p.m. ET

I’m showing restraint and not putting more than one unit down here because anything can happen on Opening Day.

However, come on, seriously? Miles Mikolas has a K/9 of 6.8 dating back to last year and gets the first nod of the season. Get it while you can.

Angels vs. Athletics Pick: 1U YRFI | +130 at DraftKings

10:07 p.m. ET

I don’t gamble, I place statistical and data-driven bets. The sharper books say there’s an advantage if you can get this line at +130 — who am I to argue? Plus, do you really want to hang a NRFI bet’s hopes on a pitcher with only 12 games under their belt?

Orioles vs. Red Sox Pick: 1U Kyle Gibson Over 4.5 Ks | +124 at FanDuel

2:10 p.m. ET

Take advantage of these early-season lines while they last! Remember that 6.8 K/9 Mikolas had earlier? Gibson has a 7.7 dating back to last year. 5 Ks is cake for this guy and I’m probably going to be sad I didn’t put 2+ units on this come Friday morning.

Pirates vs. Reds Pick: 1U YRFI | +102 at FanDuel

2:10 p.m. ET

Someone fell asleep at the wheel and, in this industry, that’s a good thing for us.

In true odds terms, if this bet was heads and this was a coin flip, you’d have a 52% chance to land on heads. You take that bet every day!

How do I Calculate my Unit Size?

For the most basic bettors, it’s advisable to make your units about 1% of your bankroll, and certainly not more than 2%. So a bettor with a $5,000 bankroll should have units of about $50. That doesn’t mean every bet has to be $50, but it’s the starting point to base your bet sizes on.

There are many strategies for managing your bankroll, but if you are simply betting for some entertainment or have the tiniest of edges, you may place half a unit on a bet, or $25. A base bet would be $50, and then for plays you love and see a bigger edge in you might go to 2% or 3% of your bankroll, which would be two or three units.

A good way to calculate how many units to put on a bet is to use the Kelly Criterion. The Kelly Criterion is a system that bases the amount of your bankroll to put on each bet based on the odds given, and the fair win probability of the bet. You can use OddsJam’s Kelly Criterion Calculator to find your ideal bet size using this method.

Using this calculator, say there’s a bet with a 55% chance of winning and you’re able to get -110 odds. With the Kelly Multiplier set at one, it tells you to risk 5.5% of your bankroll on that one bet. Most bettors aren’t comfortable risking that much of their bankroll at a time, so feel free to set the Kelly multiplier at a fraction of one that you are more comfortable with.

When using the Kelly Criterion calculator, whatever you decide on just remember to always keep the Kelly multiplier consistent across all your bets.