MLB Preview Thursday 6/13/24

Welcome to today’s MLB DFS Preview! We’ve got a full slate of games lined up, and we’ll be breaking down each matchup with a focus on the pitching. This preview will provide you with detailed analysis and key insights, helping you make informed decisions for your DFS lineups.

Later today, we’ll dive into the top hitters and stacks, but for now, let’s get started with a comprehensive look at today’s games.

Atlanta Braves vs. Baltimore Orioles – 1:05 PM EDT – Oriole Park at Camden Yards

Pitching Matchup:

• Braves: Reynaldo Lopez (RHP)
  • 2024 Expected Stats: xwOBA: 0.312, xERA: 3.85, SIERA: 3.76, ERA: 2.57, K%: 28%, BB%: 10%
• Orioles: Cole Irvin (LHP)
  • 2024 Expected Stats: xwOBA: 0.337, xERA: 4.57, SIERA: 4.30, ERA: 3.73, K%: 19%, BB%: 6%

Game Matchup:

• Key Insights:
  • Braves Offense: Strong against left-handed pitchers (0.319 wOBA vs LHP).
  • Orioles Offense: Solid against right-handed pitchers (0.333 wOBA vs RHP).
  • Ballpark Factor: Camden Yards is hitter-friendly, which could lead to a higher scoring game.
• Braves’ Reynaldo Lopez:
  • Lopez’s ability to strike out hitters (28% K rate) will be crucial against an Orioles lineup that can slug against righties.
  • His high BB% (10%) could be a concern if he struggles with control, potentially leading to extra baserunners.
• Orioles’ Cole Irvin:
  • Irvin’s below-average strikeout rate (19%) means he’ll need to rely on inducing weak contact and ground balls.
  • The Braves’ powerful lineup could exploit Irvin’s tendency to allow hard contact (33% hard contact rate).

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Washington Nationals vs. Detroit Tigers – 1:10 PM EDT – Comerica Park

Pitching Matchup:

• Nationals: Patrick Corbin (LHP)
  • 2024 Expected Stats: xwOBA: 0.402, xERA: 6.94, SIERA: 4.99, ERA: 5.47, K%: 15%, BB%: 8%
• Tigers: Casey Mize (RHP)
  • 2024 Expected Stats: xwOBA: 0.330, xERA: 4.36, SIERA: 4.51, ERA: 4.73, K%: 15%, BB%: 7%

Game Matchup:

• Key Insights:
  • Nationals Offense: Average against right-handed pitchers (0.296 wOBA vs RHP).
  • Tigers Offense: Good against left-handed pitchers (0.338 wOBA vs LHP).
• Nationals’ Patrick Corbin:
  • Corbin has struggled significantly with a high xERA (6.94) and low K% (15%), making him a target for the Tigers’ lineup.
  • His ground ball rate (45%) is one positive aspect, but the hard contact rate (34%) remains a concern.
• Tigers’ Casey Mize:
  • Mize’s stats show he has been average at best, with a xERA of 4.36 and a low strikeout rate (15%).
  • The Nationals’ lineup might not pose as big a threat, but Mize will need to limit walks and hard contact.

New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals – 2:10 PM EDT – Kauffman Stadium

Pitching Matchup:

• Yankees: Nestor Cortes (LHP)
  • 2024 Expected Stats: xwOBA: 0.291, xERA: 3.31, SIERA: 4.02, ERA: 4.25, K%: 25%, BB%: 6%
• Royals: Alec Marsh (RHP)
  • 2024 Expected Stats: xwOBA: 0.342, xERA: 4.72, SIERA: 4.21, ERA: 4.96, K%: 24%, BB%: 10%

Game Matchup:

• Key Insights:
  • Yankees Offense: Excellent against right-handed pitchers (0.346 wOBA vs RHP).
  • Royals Offense: Decent against left-handed pitchers (0.326 wOBA vs LHP).
• Yankees’ Nestor Cortes:
  • Cortes’ solid K% (25%) and low BB% (6%) make him a reliable pitcher against a Royals lineup that can be inconsistent.
  • He will need to avoid hard contact (31% hard contact rate) to keep the Royals’ offense in check.
• Royals’ Alec Marsh:
  • Marsh has shown potential with a decent K% (24%), but his high BB% (10%) and xERA (4.72) indicate struggles.
  • The Yankees’ potent lineup could capitalize on Marsh’s weaknesses, especially his tendency to allow hard contact (35%).

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals – 2:15 PM EDT – Busch Stadium

Pitching Matchup:

• Pirates: Mitch Keller (RHP)
  • 2024 Expected Stats: xwOBA: 0.323, xERA: 4.15, SIERA: 3.84, ERA: 3.91, K%: 24%, BB%: 7%
• Cardinals: Lance Lynn (RHP)
  • 2024 Expected Stats: xwOBA: 0.328, xERA: 4.30, SIERA: 4.30, ERA: 5.17, K%: 23%, BB%: 9%

Game Matchup:

• Key Insights:
  • Pirates Offense: Average against right-handed pitchers (0.287 wOBA vs RHP).
  • Cardinals Offense: Solid against right-handed pitchers (0.311 wOBA vs RHP).
• Pirates’ Mitch Keller:
  • Keller’s K% (24%) and BB% (7%) suggest he can control the game, but his xERA (4.15) indicates some risk.
  • Limiting hard contact (32%) will be crucial against a Cardinals lineup that can exploit mistakes.
• Cardinals’ Lance Lynn:
  • Lynn’s higher ERA (5.17) and xERA (4.30) show he has struggled, but his K% (23%) is still respectable.
  • The Pirates’ lineup, which has been inconsistent, will need to take advantage of Lynn’s tendency to allow hard contact (32%).

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Chicago Cubs vs. Tampa Bay Rays – 6:50 PM EDT – Tropicana Field

Pitching Matchup:

• Cubs: Justin Steele (LHP)
  • 2024 Expected Stats: xwOBA: 0.285, xERA: 3.17, SIERA: 3.66, ERA: 3.27, K%: 24%, BB%: 5%
• Rays: Taj Bradley (RHP)
  • 2024 Expected Stats: xwOBA: 0.363, xERA: 5.42, SIERA: 3.69, ERA: 5.49, K%: 28%, BB%: 8%

Game Matchup:

• Key Insights:
  • Cubs Offense: Average against right-handed pitchers (0.311 wOBA vs RHP).
  • Rays Offense: Average against left-handed pitchers (0.295 wOBA vs LHP).
• Cubs’ Justin Steele:
  • Steele’s impressive xERA (3.17) and low BB% (5%) suggest he’s a reliable starter who can keep the Rays’ lineup in check.
  • With a high ground ball rate (48%), Steele can limit damage in the hitter-friendly environment of Tropicana Field.
• Rays’ Taj Bradley:
  • Bradley’s high strikeout rate (28%) is promising, but his xERA (5.42) and ERA (5.49) indicate struggles with consistency.
  • The Cubs could take advantage of Bradley’s tendency to allow hard contact (40%).

Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets – 7:10 PM EDT – Citi Field

Pitching Matchup:

• Marlins: Roddery Munoz (RHP)
  • 2024 Expected Stats: xwOBA: 0.410, xERA: 7.30, SIERA: 4.35, ERA: 5.95, K%: 26%, BB%: 13%
• Mets: Luis Severino (RHP)
  • 2024 Expected Stats: xwOBA: 0.301, xERA: 3.56, SIERA: 4.58, ERA: 5.13, K%: 19%, BB%: 9%

Game Matchup:

• Key Insights:
  • Marlins Offense: Below average against right-handed pitchers (0.298 wOBA vs RHP).
  • Mets Offense: Strong against right-handed pitchers (0.310 wOBA vs RHP).
• Marlins’ Roddery Munoz:
  • Munoz’s high xERA (7.30) and BB% (13%) suggest significant control issues that the Mets’ lineup can exploit.
  • Despite a decent K% (26%), Munoz’s tendency to allow hard contact (39%) is a major concern.
• Mets’ Luis Severino:
  • Severino’s stats show potential with a respectable xERA (3.56), but his actual ERA (5.13) indicates some struggles.
  • The Marlins’ lineup might not pose a huge threat, but Severino will need to limit walks and avoid giving up hard contact (32%).

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Sox – 7:10 PM EDT – Fenway Park

Pitching Matchup:

• Phillies: Aaron Nola (RHP)
  • 2024 Expected Stats: xwOBA: 0.290, xERA: 3.29, SIERA: 3.74, ERA: 3.95, K%: 25%, BB%: 6%
• Red Sox: Tanner Houck (RHP)
  • 2024 Expected Stats: xwOBA: 0.288, xERA: 3.24, SIERA: 3.72, ERA: 3.63, K%: 23%, BB%: 7%

Game Matchup:

• Key Insights:
  • Phillies Offense: Solid against right-handed pitchers (0.306 wOBA vs RHP).
  • Red Sox Offense: Average against right-handed pitchers (0.325 wOBA vs RHP).
• Phillies’ Aaron Nola:
  • Nola’s strong K% (25%) and low BB% (6%) make him a reliable pitcher against a potent Red Sox lineup.
  • He will need to keep his ground ball rate (43%) up to avoid damage in the hitter-friendly Fenway Park.
• Red Sox’s Tanner Houck:
  • Houck’s excellent xERA (3.24) and solid strikeout rate (23%) suggest he can hold his own against the Phillies.
  • His ability to induce ground balls (54%) will be key in limiting the Phillies’ offensive output.

Oakland Athletics vs. Minnesota Twins – 7:40 PM EDT – Target Field

Pitching Matchup:

• Athletics: Luis Medina (RHP)
  • 2024 Expected Stats: xwOBA: 0.342, xERA: 4.72, SIERA: 4.90, ERA: 5.40, K%: 21%, BB%: 12%
• Twins: Joe Ryan (RHP)
  • 2024 Expected Stats: xwOBA: 0.281, xERA: 3.08, SIERA: 3.34, ERA: 4.11, K%: 29%, BB%: 5%

Game Matchup:

• Key Insights:
  • Athletics Offense: Below average against right-handed pitchers (0.306 wOBA vs RHP).
  • Twins Offense: Solid against right-handed pitchers (0.309 wOBA vs RHP).
• Athletics’ Luis Medina:
  • Medina’s high xERA (4.72) and BB% (12%) indicate control issues that the Twins’ lineup can exploit.
  • His ability to induce ground balls (43%) will be crucial to minimizing damage.
• Twins’ Joe Ryan:
  • Ryan’s impressive K% (29%) and low BB% (5%) make him a formidable opponent for the struggling Athletics’ lineup.
  • His xERA (3.08) suggests he has been very effective and can continue to dominate against the Athletics.

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Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle Mariners – 9:40 PM EDT – T-Mobile Park

Pitching Matchup:

• White Sox: Garrett Crochet (LHP)
  • 2024 Expected Stats: xwOBA: 0.244, xERA: 2.31, SIERA: 3.04, ERA: 3.36, K%: 32%, BB%: 8%
• Mariners: Luis Castillo (RHP)
  • 2024 Expected Stats: xwOBA: 0.306, xERA: 3.69, SIERA: 3.70, ERA: 3.34, K%: 27%, BB%: 7%

Game Matchup:

• Key Insights:
  • White Sox Offense: Below average against right-handed pitchers (0.291 wOBA vs RHP).
  • Mariners Offense: Average against left-handed pitchers (0.298 wOBA vs LHP).
• White Sox’s Garrett Crochet:
  • Crochet’s outstanding xERA (2.31) and high K% (32%) make him a strong presence on the mound.
  • His ability to induce ground balls (42%) and limit hard contact (33%) will be crucial in suppressing the Mariners’ lineup.
• Mariners’ Luis Castillo:
  • Castillo’s solid K% (27%) and respectable xERA (3.69) suggest he can effectively manage the White Sox lineup.
  • Limiting walks (7% BB rate) and keeping his ground ball rate (38%) up will be key for Castillo to succeed.

Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks – 9:40 PM EDT – Chase Field

Pitching Matchup:

• Angels: Griffin Canning (RHP)
  • 2024 Expected Stats: xwOBA: 0.346, xERA: 4.85, SIERA: 4.18, ERA: 4.44, K%: 22%, BB%: 7%
• Diamondbacks: Brandon Pfaadt (RHP)
  • 2024 Expected Stats: xwOBA: 0.280, xERA: 3.06, SIERA: 3.96, ERA: 5.21, K%: 23%, BB%: 6%

Game Matchup:

• Key Insights:
  • Angels Offense: Average against right-handed pitchers (0.295 wOBA vs RHP).
  • Diamondbacks Offense: Solid against right-handed pitchers (0.303 wOBA vs RHP).
• Angels’ Griffin Canning:
  • Canning’s xERA (4.85) indicates struggles with consistency, despite a decent K% (22%).
  • The Diamondbacks could exploit Canning’s tendency to allow hard contact (36%).
• Diamondbacks’ Brandon Pfaadt:
  • Pfaadt’s impressive xERA (3.06) and low BB% (6%) suggest he has the potential to dominate the Angels’ lineup.
  • His ability to induce ground balls (35%) and limit hard contact (33%) will be crucial.

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Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers – 10:10 PM EDT – Dodger Stadium

Pitching Matchup:

• Rangers: Michael Lorenzen (RHP)
  • 2024 Expected Stats: xwOBA: 0.340, xERA: 4.66, SIERA: 4.86, ERA: 3.86, K%: 18%, BB%: 9%
• Dodgers: Yohan Ramirez (RHP)
  • 2024 Expected Stats: Not provided

Game Matchup:

• Key Insights:
  • Rangers Offense: Average against right-handed pitchers (0.304 wOBA vs RHP).
  • Dodgers Offense: Strong against right-handed pitchers (0.335 wOBA vs RHP).
• Rangers’ Michael Lorenzen:
  • Lorenzen’s high xERA (4.66) and low K% (18%) suggest he could struggle against a potent Dodgers lineup.
  • Limiting walks (9% BB rate) and inducing ground balls (42%) will be essential for Lorenzen to mitigate damage.
• Dodgers’ Yohan Ramirez:
  • Information on Ramirez’s stats isn’t provided, but the Dodgers’ strong lineup (0.335 wOBA vs RHP) will look to capitalize on any weaknesses.
  • The Rangers’ lineup, while average, will need to find ways to exploit any opportunities against Ramirez.

Stay tuned for more in-depth previews and top hitter and stack insights later today!