MLB Top Stacks 5/21/24 Early Slate

In today’s article, we’ll highlight the top three DFS stacks for the MLB slate and one under-the-radar stack that could provide significant value.

We’ll dive into each matchup, providing key insights and statistical analysis to justify why these stacks are the best plays today.

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Top MLB DFS Stacks

1. San Diego Padres vs. Andrew Abbott (CIN)

Great American Ball Park

Key Insights:

• Padres’ Strength vs. LHP:
  • Fernando Tatis Jr.: .400 xwOBA, .187 ISO, 20.9% K rate
  • Manny Machado: .360 xwOBA, .199 ISO, 19.2% K rate
  • Xander Bogaerts: .336 xwOBA, .157 ISO, 15.1% K rate
• Abbott’s Weakness vs. RHB:
  • .312 xwOBA, .221 ISO, 23.0% K rate

Why the Padres are a Top Stack:

• Hitter-Friendly Park: Great American Ball Park boosts offensive potential, making it easier for hitters to generate extra-base hits and home runs.
• Abbott’s Struggles vs. RHB: Abbott’s higher xwOBA and ISO against right-handed batters align perfectly with the Padres’ power hitters.
• Power Potential: Tatis Jr., Machado, and Bogaerts have the power to exploit Abbott’s weaknesses, providing significant DFS upside.

2. Philadelphia Phillies vs. Jon Gray (TEX)

Citizens Bank Park

Key Insights:

• Phillies’ Strength vs. RHP:
  • Kyle Schwarber: .365 xwOBA, .276 ISO, 28.0% K rate
  • Bryce Harper: .407 xwOBA, .218 ISO, 21.2% K rate
  • Alec Bohm: .348 xwOBA, .133 ISO, 15.3% K rate
• Gray’s Weakness vs. LHB:
  • .342 xwOBA, .160 ISO, 21.1% K rate

Why the Phillies are a Top Stack:

• Lefty Power: Schwarber and Harper’s left-handed power profiles are well-suited to exploit Gray’s vulnerabilities against left-handed hitters.
• Run Production: The Phillies’ lineup is capable of generating runs through both power and on-base skills, making them a high-upside stack.
• Home Field Advantage: Citizens Bank Park enhances power numbers, especially for left-handed hitters, providing an added boost for Schwarber and Harper.

3. San Francisco Giants vs. Martin Perez (PIT)

PNC Park

Key Insights:

• Giants’ Strength vs. LHP:
  • Jorge Soler: .436 xwOBA, .362 ISO, 21.3% K rate
  • Wilmer Flores: .302 xwOBA, .207 ISO, 15.5% K rate
  • Matt Chapman: .391 xwOBA, .222 ISO, 22.2% K rate
• Perez’s Weakness vs. RHB:
  • .355 xwOBA, .174 ISO, 16.1% K rate

Why the Giants are a Top Stack:

• Right-Handed Power: Soler, Flores, and Chapman are right-handed power hitters with favorable matchups against Perez.
• Perez’s Struggles: Perez’s high xwOBA and ISO against right-handed hitters indicate he is prone to giving up hard contact and extra-base hits.
• Consistency: The Giants’ lineup has consistent power and on-base skills, providing a solid floor and high ceiling for DFS purposes.

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Under-the-Radar Stack

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Trevor Rogers (MIA)

loanDepot Park

Key Insights:

• Brewers’ Strength vs. LHP:
  • William Contreras: .374 xwOBA, .262 ISO, 20.0% K rate
  • Willy Adames: .339 xwOBA, .178 ISO, 28.5% K rate
  • Christian Yelich: .293 xwOBA, .125 ISO, 23.2% K rate
• Rogers’ Weakness vs. RHB:
  • .354 xwOBA, .166 ISO, 18.0% K rate

Why the Brewers are an Under-the-Radar Stack:

• Value Play: The Brewers’ hitters are often overlooked, making them a valuable contrarian stack with high upside.
• Rogers’ Struggles: Rogers’ high xwOBA and ISO against right-handed hitters provide a favorable matchup for the Brewers’ power bats.
• Balanced Attack: The Brewers have a balanced lineup capable of producing runs through power and situational hitting, increasing their DFS potential.

Conclusion

Today’s top MLB DFS stacks include the San Diego Padres, Philadelphia Phillies, and San Francisco Giants, each with favorable matchups against pitchers who struggle against their respective strengths. Additionally, the Milwaukee Brewers offer a high-upside, under-the-radar stack that could provide significant value. Use these insights to build a winning DFS lineup. Good luck!