$1,500 Parlay: 6 Profitable Legs for May 16, 2023

ParlayPlay is pretty simple. You need to be putting together six-pick insured plays to win. If you don’t already understand why, stop reading and watch this video.

For those who already know the math, you know that you need to win at least 53.22% of your legs to be a profitable player over time. You need to find plays that win at least that often. If you are just using your gut, you are going to win 50% of the time and you WILL lose money. Instead, a tool like the OddsJam Fantasy Optimizer gives you the edge you need. Time to put together the slip:

Pick #1: Justin Steele Under 4.5 Strikeouts

The OddsJam Fantasy Optimizer makes it pretty simple to beat ParlayPlay: as you can see in the screenshot above, Justin Steele Under 4.5 Ks has a 54.53% chance to win. As discussed above, you need to win at least 53.22% of the time. 54.53% is greater than 53.22%, so you are golden.

It makes sense that the Under 4.5 line is expected to have a high win percentage when looking at the optimizer and also when looking at the Positive Expected Value tool, which shows you where one book is making a “mistake” compared to the rest of the market. Here you can see that ParlayPlay is giving you -114 odds. Other books are heavily favoring the under 4.5 Ks: Caesars is pricing the fair line at -141. Pin is saying it should be all the way down at -177. Long story short, this is a leg we want in our slip.

Pick #2: Vincent Over 13 Points + Assists

For my next pick, I used the OddsJam Screen, which makes it quick and easy to find where one book has set their line differently than everyone else.

PrizePicks, DraftKings, BetMGM, and others all have Gabe’s line set at 13.5, while ParlayPlay has it at 13. It is obvious we should take the over; we are getting an entire half a point for free. That is the difference between being a winner and a loser long term.

I used the same strategies to put together the rest of my slip:

• Justin Steele Under 4.5 Strikeouts
• Luis Ortiz Under 4.5 Strikeouts
• D’Angelo Russell Over 14.5 Points
• Jamal Murray Over 30.5 Points + Assists
• Shane Bieber Under 5.5 Strikeouts
• Gabe Vincent Over 13 Points + Assists

Time to win $1,500