Three “No Brainer” MLB Player Prop Bets for Wednesday, May 3

There’s 16 MLB games on Wednesday, May 3. In this betting preview, I’m going to break down my three favorite MLB prop bets for today. I think I have the sharpest baseball bets for 5/3, and all of my picks were found on the OddsJam sports betting software.

Reds vs Padres: Seth Lugo Over 4.5 Ks at -105 Odds on Fliff Sportsbook

My first MLB prop bet for Wednesday, May 3 is Seth Lugo Over 4.5 Strikeouts at -105 Odds on Fliff. I’ve noticed a lot of profitable bets on Fliff recently, so I’ve increased my betting volume on this sportsbook.

I found this sharp MLB player prop on Seth Lugo with the OddsJam Positive EV Tool. The Positive EV Tool is simple, yet beautiful. This betting tool simply points out value in the market. There’s no B.S., no fluff… The Positive EV Tool simply points out large line discrepancies.

As seen in the screenshot above, Seth Lugo o4.5 Ks is -105 odds on Fliff, but look at the ‘prices’ (e.g. odds) on Lugo’s over 4.5 Ks on other sportsbooks:

1. Caesars -143 odds
2. DraftKings -125 odds

The average price on Seth Lugo over 4.5 Ks is -126 odds, and we’re getting -105 on Fliff. That’s value!

As sharp bettors, we’re always looking for an “edge.” You’ll never hear me say a bet is a “lock” or any B.S. like that. I simply highlight plays with a mathematical profit margin & clear value, as this is how you consistently grow your bankroll month after month.

My 2023 results betting on player props is pretty solid. I’m 620-739-123 with $34,870.18 in profit and a 9.84% ROI. Thus, I’ve bet roughly $371,000 total on player props so far in 2023 ($34,870.18 / 9.84%). That may seem like a lot of money, but you have to remember that we’re 120 days into 2023. On a daily basis, I’ve bet roughly $3,000 on player props ($371,000 stake / 120 days).

And that’s the truth of it… Sports betting is a grind. I bet every day of the year. I’m always hunting for plays with an edge. As seen in the bet tracker image above, I still go on losing streaks, but I always win long-term since my plays have a mathematical edge and are based in data.

Brewers vs Rockies: Kyle Freeland Under 4.5 Ks at +115 Odds on Fliff Sportsbook

My second pick is also on Fliff sportsbook. I’m on Kyle Freeland under 4.5 Strikeouts @ +115 odds. Once again, this play was found on the OddsJam Positive EV Tool.

As seen in the screenshot above, we’re getting +115 odds on Fliff. OddsJam is reading in 100,000+ MLB odds every second to point out profitable player props just like this one. Just look at the odds on Freeland under 4.5 Ks on other sportsbooks…

1. Caesars -108 odds
2. DraftKings +100 odds

We’re getting clear value on Fliff at +115. As sharp bettors, we treat every sportsbook as a data point on where the line should be set. Caesars is telling us Freeland’s under 4.5 Ks should be priced at -108 odds, DraftKings is saying +100 odds, etc. As you look throughout the market, it becomes clear that this MLB prop has a lot of value at +115 odds on Fliff.

Rays vs Pirates: Shane McClanahan Under 17.5 Outs at +168 Odds on Caesars Sportsbook

My final MLB prop bet for May 3 is Shane McClanahan under 17.5 outs at +168 odds on Caesars sportsbook. Our first two MLB player props were on Fliff, and the final pick is on Caesars.

As sharp bettors, it is essential to have numerous sportsbook accounts. Since books set lines independently, you never know which sportsbook is going to “slip up” and offer profitable bets on a given day. Some days, Fliff has a lot of value. Other days, it’s FanDuel. More sportsbooks = more profitable bets = more money in your pocket as a sharp bettor. More = merrier!

Finding value in the sports betting market is relatively easy; it’s just a grind. Anybody can make money sports betting, but they need to put in the work to find & place Positive EV bets on a daily basis. There’s not much more to it… Find plays with an edge, bet them, and let the math work itself out.

As a Positive EV sports bettor, you’ll still have winning days and losing days. However, you’ll be guaranteed to win long-term since all of your plays have a mathematical edge. It’s like flipping a coin that is weighted in your favor (e.g. 53% to land to heads, 47% to land on tails).