UFC 279: Nate Diaz vs. Tony Ferguson & Kevin Holland vs. Khamzat Chimaev Predictions — Moneyline Bets for Sept. 10

Early UFC 279 Bets & Predictions

What a difference a day makes in betting and brawling. Missing weight is never acceptable, but Saturday night is still alright for UFC fighting. We break down what happened to UFC 279 and predict the new matchups for your profit.

Why is UFC 279 Changing?

Kevin Holland and Khamzat Chimaev engaged in a physical altercation backstage Thursday, canceling the UFC 279 press conference. Khamzat subsequently missed weight by 7.5 pounds Friday. Athletic commissions allow one pound over the 170 weight limit for non-title fights, thus the fight was canceled. 

What Are the New UFC 279 Fights?

Dana White confirmed on SportsCenter that Diaz will still headline the event against Ferguson. Holland and Chimaev take their backstage beef into the Octagon. Ferguson’s original opponent Li Jingliang faces Daniel Rodriguez.

Nate Diaz vs. Tony Ferguson Pick: Ferguson Moneyline | -138 at DraftKings

Welterweight | Main Event | 10 p.m. ET

Diaz and Ferguson take similar paths to victory. Both rely on outstanding cardiovascular conditioning and a superhuman punishment threshold to wear out opponents until the later rounds when the real fight begins. Offense arrives via high volumes of striking and a versatile ground game that forces many inferior grapplers into submission.

The two build different stories to reach that same conclusion. 

Boxing dominates the Diaz brothers’ striking game — Nick is widely considered one of the best boxers in MMA history. Nate innovated the Stockton slap to mix into his classic combinations as a way to make humiliated opponents fight frustrated. Fighting with pride over pragmatism creates mistakes that let turn fight tides on the ground.

I’m not sure anyone can or wants to get into the head of Tony Ferguson. I imagine Stockton slaps will be returned with imaginary sand throws seen in Ferguson’s loss to Justin Gaethje. 

Unlike Diaz, the meme magnet expands far beyond one striking discipline. Ferguson even utilizes Wing Chun techniques at times. Elbows and uppercuts top the list of lethal weapons on the feet. 

The former opens notoriously nasty cuts that have ended multiple fights. Diaz cuts easier than most opponents, losing one of the biggest fights in UFC history via doctor’s stoppage over a cut created by Jorge Masvidal. Both short-range blows counter Diaz’s tendency to stick close to opponents and lean on them in the clinch to drain stamina and eventually find trips to the ground.

Diaz’s chances of obtaining victory darken if the fight goes there. He enjoys a considerable grappling advantage over most opponents — he is one of only five people with at least 9 submission victories in the UFC. However, Tony Ferguson is not most opponents. 

He owns six UFC submission wins over mostly respectable competition, has one of the sneakiest submission games in MMA and is an accomplished pupil of Eddie Bravo. Bravo is as crazy good at jiu-jitsu as he is crazy on the Joe Rogan Experience. 

A couple of opponents recently controlled Tony Ferguson in grappling situations. Ferguson is past his prime, but he is not past the breaking point. Charles Oliveira dominates the all-time UFC submission list with 16. He failed to add to the tarantula-like total against Ferguson, despite nearly 12 minutes of control time. Ferguson somehow survived a fully extended armbar in the painful process. 

Competitive jiu-jitsu champion Beniil Dariush couldn’t advance to a winning position either in essentially the same control time.

Don’t expect Diaz to find a submission or victory of any kind during this engaging-yet-bumpy ride into the sunset.

Kevin Holland vs. Khamzat Chimaev Pick: Chimaev Moneyline | -520 at FanDuel

Catchweight at 180 Pounds | Co-Main | 10 p.m. ET

Holland fires hard shots with his mouth and mitts. In this case, that mouth writes checks his supine body won’t cash.

Porous takedown defense at 50% represents a soft target for Chimaev’s impressive takedowns to land. Geralt Meerschaert isn’t anywhere near Chimaev’s wrestling caliber, yet he scored 11 against Holland. Marvin Vettori used his respectable-yet-unspectacular wrestling to land the same amount in a lopsided win. Derek Brunson weaponized his wrestling background to land six en route to a decision victory.

Holland’s long road to victory necessitates using his power connectable from an 81-inch reach to prevent Chimaev from closing the distance. Gilbert Burns dropped former welterweight king Kamaru Usman, yet couldn’t do the same against Chimaev in their recent war.

Chimaev answered cardio questions in that fight as well. He’s known for a constant training regiment that saws through gauntlets of training partners as well. These facts combine with the near-certainty that Holland will be carrying Chimaev’s 180-pound weight a lot negate the slight experience edge in five-round fights Holland enters with.

It’s also worth noting that Chimaev as an undefeated dynamo who has only been seriously tested one time is an incredibly hard opponent to prepare for on short notice.

Li Jingliang vs. Danny Rodriguez Pick: Jingliang Moneyline | +128 at FanDuel

This is a strange matchup that’s very hard to predict on paper. Bettors can be choosers and I advise avoiding a wager here.

Rodriguez builds upon a three-fight win streak earned through a composed style that scores points with solid boxing fundamentals and an effect sprawl that keeps the fight upright.

Jingliang alters striking equations with heavy blows from any range. He can be outwrestled and outworked in the clinch and ground game though. Rodriguez refuses to wrestle offensively too often at less than a takedown landed per fight. A rare opportunity presents itself if he adapts to the new matchup.

Rodriguez historically throws, lands and absorbs more punches than “The Leech” assuming this fight stays standing. Playing a game of toughness with Jingliang isn’t a recipe for success. He can end it with one shot.

The fright and fight fan in me leans with the sportsbook-sucking power of “The Leech.”