$14,100 Payout featuring Kevin Durant: 5 NBA Picks for Tonight!

I have two juicy player prop entries on Underdog Fantasy. There’s six picks total that I went with for today – 5 NBA player props, as well as one NHL pick.

Pick #1: Jaylen Brown Under 4.0 Assists on Underdog Fantasy

The first NBA player prop I’m on tonight is for Game 5 of Celtics vs 76ers. I hit Jaylen Brown Under 4.0 Assists on Underdog Fantasy.

As seen in the screenshot above from the NBA Odds Screen, Underdog Fantasy is the only platform with Jaylen Brown’s line @ 4.0. Every other fantasy platform & sportsbook has Brown’s line @ 3.5 Assists.

Underdog Fantasy is too high relative to every other data point (e.g. sportsbook posting odds), so we want to Brown u4.0 Assists. Follow the data – this is how you get an “edge” over the sportsbooks and make money long-term.

FanDuel is one of the few sportsbooks that offers “Alternate Markets” for player props. As seen in the screenshot above, FanDuel has Brown under 4.5 Assists priced at -270 odds and Brown under 3.5 Assists priced at -112 odds.

On Underdog, we’re playing Brown under 4.0 Assists. The midpoint of FanDuel’s odds for Jaylen Brown under 3.5 & under 4.5 = -192 odds, and that’s the “implied price” from FanDuel for Brown under 4.0 Assists. Long story short, 3.5 Assists vs 4.0 Assists is a big jump in the odds. FanDuel has a 158 cent jump (-112 vs -270) for Brown under 3.5 vs under 4.5 Assists.

My 3 pick entry on Underdog Fantasy is above. I’m staking $350 to win $2,100. My three player prop picks in this entry are:

1. Yanni Gourde Under 2.0 Shots on Goal (NHL Pick)
2. Jaylen Brown Under 4.0 Assists (NBA Pick)
3. Caldwell-Pope Over 9.5 Points (NBA Pick)

Pick #2: Kevin Durant Under 14.5 Rebounds + Assists on Underdog Fantasy

My second NBA player prop on Underdog Fantasy is for the Suns vs Nuggets game tonight. I’m on Kevin Durant under 14.5 Rebounds + Assists.

I found this sharp NBA pick on the Fantasy Optimizer. As seen in the screenshot above from the Fantasy Optimizer, Kevin Durant under 14.5 Rebounds + Assists is 55.37% to win.

On Underdog Fantasy, you need to win your player prop over/unders at least 55.1% of the time to be profitable, as explained in this DFS strategy guide. Since Durant under 14.5 Rebounds + Assists has a win rate above 55.1%, this is a profitable NBA player prop to include in an Underdog Fantasy entry.

My final Underdog Fantasy entry has three picks. I’m staking $2,000 to win $12,000 if each pick wins. My three picks are:

1. Malcolm Brogdon Under 0.5 Steals (76ers vs Celtics Player Prop)
2. Jamal Murray Over 2.5 Made Threes (Suns vs Nuggets Player Prop)
3. Kevin Durant Under 14.5 Rebounds + Assists (Suns vs Nuggets Player Prop)

Following the data and finding an “edge” on Underdog Fantasy isn’t exactly glamorous… It’s hard work. Regardless, it’s well worth it. Underdog Fantasy is one of my most profitable accounts.

As seen on my Pikkit Sports bet tracker, I’ve profited $34,574.00 on Underdog Fantasy in 2023. That’s an ROI of 30.14%, which is pretty insane… My 2023 record on Underdog Fantasy is 43-159-4.