25x Payout: Six “No Brainer” Player Prop Bets for Today

The Western Conference Finals begins today… In this betting preview, I’ll be sharing six sharp player prop bets that I’m on.

In these articles, I’m simply showing you where I’m finding value (e.g. an “edge”) – what I’m putting my own money on… If I find value on FanDuel sportsbook, then I’ll have more articles about FanDuel. If there’s more profitable picks on Underdog Fantasy, then I’ll have more articles on Underdog.

It’s really that simple… I bet to make money. In these betting previews, I’m just showing you what I bet & explaining why each pick is mathematically profitable.

Pick #1: Dennis Schroder Over 8.5 Points in Lakers vs Nuggets

My first player prop pick for today is Dennis Schroder Over 8.5 Points on ParlayPlay. I found this NBA prop on the OddsJam Fantasy Optimizer.

ParlayPlay is a fixed payout platform. To be profitable on this fantasy sports platform, we need to win above 53.22% of our player prop over/unders.

ParlayPlay knows that most sports bettors have zero “edge” (or advantage) – they’ll will win 50%, lose 50% of their over/unders. Thus, recreational bettors with no edge will lose money on ParlayPlay long-term, as they can’t win their player props above 53.22% of the time.

As seen in the screenshot above from the Fantasy Optimizer, Schroder over 8.5 Points has a win rate of 53.51%. Since this player prop pick is winning above 53.22% of the time, it’s profitable in a ParlayPlay entry. This is a play with an “edge.”

So why is Schroder’s over 8.5 points winning 53.51% of the time? That’s the million dollar question…

Just take a look at the screenshot above from the OddsJam Positive EV Betting Tool (picks in green/bold = profitable). All sportsbooks have Schroder’s over 8.5 points as the heavily favored outcome.

• FanDuel: -128/+100
• Caesars: -131/-104
• Wynn: -130/-110
• DraftKings: -130/+100
• Fliff: -135/-105

Each sportsbook is a data point telling you that Schroder’s over is the more likely outcome. The Fantasy Optimizer simply quantifies the exact win probability for this NBA bet using sportsbook odds.

Pick #2: Al Horford Under 10.0 Rebounds + Assists in Celtics vs Heat

My second player prop bet on ParlayPlay is Al Horford Under 10.0 Rebounds + Assists. I found this NBA prop on the Odds Screen.

As seen in the screenshot above, PrizePicks & all sportsbooks have Horford’s line set at 9.5 Rebs + Asts. ParlayPlay is too high relative to every other data point (e.g. sportsbook posting odds), so we want to take the under.

As sharp bettors, we treat every sportsbook as a data point on where the line should be set. That’s the key to identifying value and profitable bets.

I have six total player prop bets on ParlayPlay, and I’m staking $60 to win $1,500 if all six picks win. My six picks are:

• Masataka Yoshida Under 1.5 Bases
• Dennis Schroder Over 8.5 Points
• Al Horford Under 10.0 Rebounds + Assists
• Domingo German Over 4.5 Strikeouts
• Max Strus Over 13.0 Pts + Ast
• Lance Lynn Under 5.5 Strikeouts