Can We Cash $500? Six-Pick Player Prop Parlay for Monday, May 22

It appears we have a letdown of an NBA Conference Finals in both the East and the West, but there are also two opportunities for history to be made with a team coming back from 3-0. Tonight is Game 4 of the Western Conference Finals with the Lakers trying to avoid a sweep at the hands of the Nuggets.

I found a profitable, six-pick parlay on ParlayPlay for tonight’s action, including five props from Nuggets-Lakers Game 4.

Pick #1: Jamal Murray Over 10.5 Rebounds + Assists

I found this play using the OddsJam Fantasy Optimizer. The Fantasy Optimizer shows the player props on ParlayPlay that are mathematically profitable.

ParlayPlay is a fixed payout platform (very similar to PrizePicks). They don’t change your payout based on the six picks you select. Any six-pick entry has the exact same payout.

To be profitable over time on ParlayPlay with six-pick entries, you need to win over 53.22% of your individual props.

The Fantasy Optimizer will show props that have higher than a 53.22% chance of winning in green, making it simple for you to see which plays to include in your entries.

In this case, you can see Murray’s over has nearly a 55% chance of hitting based on market data. Here at OddsJam we don’t bet based on what we personally think will happen on the court or field, we just identify value in the market.

For Murray, all sportsbooks have his over 10.5 rebounds + assists as the heavily favored outcome (around -145 odds). Thus, Murray is a lot more likely to go over as opposed to under.

ParlayPlay knows that most sports bettors have zero “edge” (or advantage) – they’ll will win 50%, lose 50% of their over/unders. Thus, recreational bettors with no edge will lose money on ParlayPlay long-term, as they can’t win their player props above 53.22% of the time.

Getting a significant edge like we are here is the only way to consistently win over 53.22% of the time, setting us up to be profitable sports bettors on ParlayPlay.

Pick #2: D’Angelo Russell Under 11 Points

I found this play using OddsJam’s Sportsbook Screen, where there is clear value on Russell.

Just look at the screenshot above. Every other book has his total at 10.5.

If Russell lands on exactly 11 points, our bet pushes on ParlayPlay while the rest of the market would lose under 10.5. It may seem unlikely that he lands on exactly 11, but that edge makes all the difference in sports betting.

Russell has struggled mightily in this series on both ends of the floor, so I wouldn’t be surprised if his minutes are cut down in a must-win game for the Lakers.

Before we get to the full slip, a common misconception among the sports betting community is that you can’t profit consistently on parlays. While that’s true for most casual gamblers, if you have an edge on each of the legs of your parlay your entire parlay will be profitable, which means its expected value is positive.

Just take a look at my profit on parlays so far this year. This screenshot is from Pikkit, a verified bet tracker.

Full Slip