$1,000 Celtics vs Heat: PrizePicks Player Props for Tuesday, May 23

The Miami Heat are looking to close out the Eastern Conference Finals in Game 4 at home against the Boston Celtics tonight. For them to do so, they’ll likely need another stellar performance from their star big man in Bam Adebayo.

Adebayo’s total points highlights this five-leg slip that I found on PrizePicks. All of these bets are mathematically profitable and were found using OddsJam.

Pick #1: Bam Adebayo Over 17.5 Points

I found this play using OddsJam’s Positive Expected Value Tool, where PrizePicks has this bet at a significantly lower price than any other book.

As you can see, taking this same bet at FanDuel would require betting at -152, with Caesars isn’t far behind at -145. At PrizePicks, however, we are getting a fixed price of -119 for any five or six-leg parlay we place.

FanDuel, Caesars and DraftKings are three of the most popular sportsbooks in the country. With those three favoring this bet in the -140 range, it tells us that they project Bam’s over to be more likely to hit than his under. With PrizePicks’ fixed price at -119, however, we can pick either over or under for the same price and use that to our advantage.

In order to secure a long term profit with PrizePicks, you need to be winning your bets 54.25% of the time. Sports bettors who don’t follow the math and hit at say, 51% of the time, are going to see a substantial long term loss at the end of the year.

Adebayo has been very good for Miami this postseason. With this total needing 18 to cash, Bam has hit that number or more in five of his last six games. Despite the re-emergence of Robert Williams III for Boston, the Celtics have just had no answer for Adebayo in this series.

Regardless of play on the court, however, we’re always going to trust the data, which is telling us to take Bam’s over in Game 4.

Pick #2: Jimmy Butler Over 6 Assists

This play was found using OddsJam’s Fantasy Screen, where we have some clear value on Jimmy Butler to total more than six assists.

The Fantasy Screen makes it incredibly easy to find mathematically profitable bets for all things daily fantasy. As you can see, Butler’s prop here has a 56.15% chance to hit, which is above the odds this entry would be for any five or six leg entry.

A bet that is -119 has an implied probability of 54.34%, which is obviously lower than the percent chance that we are given at these odds. At an almost 2% difference, this is the type of sharp bet we are looking for tonight.

Remember, the best strategy for all PrizePicks is to use five and six leg parlays. Anything lower, be it two, three or four legs, has higher odds than -119 per bet, which likely won’t result in a long term profit.

Using tools like the Fantasy Screen at OddsJam are how I make a consistent profit on PrizePicks. Check out my record and return from Pikkit on parlays like this one this year.

Taco Tuesday Prop

Every Tuesday, PrizePicks discounts a few bets throughout the day by a significant margin. Right now, it’s Bam Adebayo to get over 14.5 points, which as shown above, is less than his standard total on the night.

Every Taco Tuesday offer from PrizePicks is going to be Positive EV and should always be added to your slips. While they do limit to only $25 entries that include these discounts, it’s one you should always be taking advantage of.

With three points of clear value being given from PrizePicks on this play, make sure you lock it into one of your slips tonight.

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