I have been finding tons of mathematically profitable bets at ParlayPlay and that continues today. I’ve got a sharp six-leg entry for tonight’s action in what is a great day for sports, highlighted by Heat-Celtics in Game 7 and Golden Knights-Stars in Game 6.
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Pick #1: Caleb Martin Under 16 Points
This play comes from the OddsJam NBA Screen and there is massive value on Martin at ParlayPlay right now. Check this out.
ParlayPlay is offering his total at 16 points, while others are around 15 and even 14.5. It’s rare to see a 1.5 point difference across sportsbooks or DFS platforms, but that’s exactly what we’re getting with this one.
Simpy put, ParlayPlay is too high relative to every other data point. Since we’re being given these extra points of value, the sharp play is to take the under.
ParlayPlay is a fixed payout platform, meaning your payout is the same regardless of what bet you choose.
In order to be profitable long term at ParlayPlay, you need to be winning your bets more than 53.22% of the time. With that number in mind, I am always placing bets that have a higher mathematical chance of hitting than 53.22%.
Pick #2: Marcus Smart Under 5.5 Assists
This play comes from the OddsJam Fantasy Optimizer, which is an incredibly useful tool for finding bets that have a higher implied probability of winning than the 53.22% profit threshold we just discussed.
Any pick in green is mathematically profitable, which is why Smart is our second pick. If you look towards the top right of the screen, you can see that other sportsbooks are heavily favoring this under, with some getting into the -140 range.
That tells us that the sportsbooks believe Smart’s under is more likely to hit than his over, so we’re going to take that knowledge and add it into our fixed payout entry at PrizePicks.
ParlayPlay knows that most sports bettors have zero “edge” (or advantage) – they’ll will win 50%, lose 50% of their over/unders. Thus, recreational bettors with no edge will lose money on ParlayPlay long-term, as they can’t win their player props above 53.22% of the time.
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