Andrew Wiggins: Six Last Minute Player Prop Bets

In this betting preview, I’m going to run you through six sharp player prop picks on ParlayPlay, which is a new competitor to PrizePicks & Underdog Fantasy.

Just like PrizePicks, ParlayPlay is a fixed payout platform. For 6 pick entries, ParlayPlay offers the following payouts:

• 6/6 Picks Correct: 25x Payout
• 5/6 Picks Correct: 2.5x Payout
• 4/6 Picks Correct: 0.5x Payout

The payouts on ParlayPlay are slightly higher than PrizePicks. On PrizePicks, a 6 pick entry also has the following payout structure:

• 6/6 Picks Correct: 25x Payout
• 5/6 Picks Correct: 2.0x Payout
• 4/6 Picks Correct: 0.4x Payout

Long story short, ParlayPlay has better payouts than PrizePicks if you go 5/6 or 4/6.

Pick #1: Andrew Wiggins Under 6.0 Rebounds on ParlayPlay

My first player prop pick for Saturday, May 6 is Andrew Wiggins Under 6.0 Rebounds. I found this sharp NBA prop on the OddsJam NBA Screen.

As seen in the screenshot below, ParlayPlay has the line for Wiggins set at 6.0 rebounds. The other fantasy sites (e.g. PrizePicks, Underdog) have his line at 5.5. All sportsbooks also have his line set at 5.5 boards.

This example shows why line shopping is so important in sports betting. Since sportsbooks set lines independently (e.g. each book has different odds), it’s critical to have numerous sportsbook accounts. You never know which book is going to “slip up” and offer profitable bets on a given day. Sometimes, there’s a ton of profitable betting picks on FanDuel. Other days, there’s more value on DraftKings or PrizePicks.

Today, however, the value is on ParlayPlay. We want to take Wiggins under 6.0 rebounds because ParlayPlay has his line too high relative to every other data point (e.g. sportsbook posting odds).

As sharp bettors, we follow the data, not our gut. Over 99% of sports bettors find picks with their gut, and that’s why 99% of bettors lose money long-term… You have to do something different & follow the data if you want to make money sports betting. It’s 2023 – you should be betting with data & not your gut.

Pick #2: Devin Booker Over 2.5 Made Threes on ParlayPlay

My next NBA pick on ParlayPlay is Devin Booker Over 2.5 Made Threes. I explained earlier that ParlayPlay has fixed payouts – this platform does not vary your payout based on the 6 picks you select. Any 6 pick entry has the exact same payout structure.

I broke down the sports betting math behind ParlayPlay in this Google spreadsheet. Long story short, you need to win over 53.22% of your player prop picks to be profitable on this fantasy sports platform.

If you have zero “edge” or advantage, then you’ll only be able to select player prop over/unders correctly 50% of the time. That’s how ParlayPlay makes money off sports bettors… They know most bettors cannot get an advantage & win over 53.22% of their picks.

To find NBA picks that are winning above 53.22% of the time, I use the Positive EV Betting Tool. Basically, because ParlayPlay does not vary payouts based on you selecting over vs under, you just want to find picks that are heavily favored on the sportsbooks.

As seen in the screenshot above, all sportsbooks have Devin Booker’s over 2.5 Made Threes as the heavily favored outcome. His over 2.5 Made Threes has an “average price” of -134 odds.

As sharp bettors, we treat every sportsbook as a data point on where the line should be set. In this case, all books are telling you that Booker’s over is more likely than his under. That’s why sportsbooks have betting lines juiced towards the over. Since Booker’s over is a lot more likely than his under, Booker over 2.5 3’s is a sharp, profitable NBA pick to include in your ParlayPlay entry.

The Fantasy Optimizer betting tool will quantify the exact win probability for each pick on ParlayPlay. For example, Booker over 2.5 Made Threes is 53.36% to win according to sportsbooks.

It should be clear that Booker’s over 2.5 3’s is above 50% to win because all books have his over as the favored outcome. The Fantasy Optimizer, however, actually tells you the exact win probability for each pick.

There’s no fluff or BS here… Everything is just based in sportsbook odds. A bet that is -200 odds simply means a 2:1 betting favorite (e.g. 2/3 or 66.67% to win). That’s what -200 odds means.

Any pick on the Fantasy Optimizer that is above 53.22% to win will be profitable in a 6 pick ParlayPlay entry. For that reason, all of the picks winning above 53.22% are highlighted in green on the Fantasy Optimizer. The higher the win percentage, the better the bet.

My 6 pick entry on ParlayPlay is above. They offer maximum bet sizes of $60, so I hit this play for the max I could. I’m betting $60 to win $1,500 if I go 6/6. That’s a 25x payout.

As always, if you have questions about ParlayPlay, PrizePicks or anything else related to sports betting, please don’t hesitate to reach out. My email is [email protected]!