Celtics in 7? The Precise Probability the Celtics Beat the Heat

No team has come back from a 3-0 deficit in NBA history…

Granted, it’s bound to happen eventually. The question is – can the Celtics do it this year?

In this NBA betting article, I’ll be breaking down the true probability that the Celtics win the Eastern Conference Finals. If you have any questions, my email is [email protected] – I’m always happy to answer questions about sports analytics & sports betting.

Celtics vs Heat Series Odds: What are Sportsbooks Saying?

On DraftKings sportsbook, the Miami Heat are priced at -1400 odds to win the Eastern Conference Finals. The Boston Celtics are +800 odds.

It shouldn’t be surprising that the Heat are heavy favorites to win the series; they’re up 3-0.

Next, we want to use a No Vig Sports Betting Calculator to determine the series win probability for each team. Simply input the odds from DraftKings sportsbook and this calculator will tell you the exact win probability for both teams.

According to the betting markets on DraftKings, the Heat are 89.36% to advance to the Finals. The Celtics are 10.64%.

A No Vig Calculator simply converts odds to probabilities; it’s the most important calculator in sports betting.

Every odd has an associated probability, just like every fraction has an associated probability (e.g. 3/4 = 75%). As an example, if the Heat were -200 to win the series, then they’d be 2:1 betting favorites (e.g. 2/3 to win, or 66.67%): a -200 odds favorite just means 2/3 or 66.67% to win. A -300 odds favorite means a 3:1 betting favorite (e.g. 3/4 to win, or 75%).

The reason you trust sportsbook odds is because this is where real money is being put down. Sports bettors are placing real dollars on the Celtics at +800 odds and the Heat at -1400.

Anybody can say “Oh, the Heat are 99.9% to win the series,” but that opinion is useless because they’re not actually putting their money where their mouth is. If somebody truly believed the Heat were 99.9% to win the series, they’d think Miami should be 999:1 betting favorites or -99900 odds. That person would be rushing to bet the Heat at -1400 odds on DraftKings sportsbook because -1400 would be a “steal deal.”

That’s why markets work. Sports betting markets are based on where people are putting real money down.