Durant, Harden, Booker, Brown: Eight Sharp NBA & NHL Picks for Sunday, May 7

In this betting preview, I’ll be taking you through my early NBA & NHL “playoff picks” for Sunday, May 7. I have eight sharp player prop bets.

The point of these articles is two-fold. First, I want to give out profitable bets that others can follow. I put my own personal money on all of these prop bets. Second, I want to teach you how to beat the sportsbooks. I want these articles to be educational.

I’ve hit a bit of a rough patch recently, but my sports betting profit so far in 2023 is $94,325.15. I use a verified bet tracker called “Pikkit Sports” to track my profit & loss. It’s the most popular verified bet tracker in the sports betting industry.

You add your sportsbook accounts to Pikkit, and this platform will automatically tell you your profit & loss, win/loss record, etc. It’s a public platform – you can follow all of my bets on my Pikkit profile.

Underdog Fantasy: Three Sharp Player Prop Picks

My first player prop pick for Sunday, May 7 is in the Suns vs Nuggets game. I’m on Devin Booker under 40.5 Points + Assists. I found this player prop pick on the OddsJam NBA Screen.

As seen in the screenshot below, Underdog Fantasy is the only platform with Booker’s line @ 40.5 Points + Assists. Every other sportsbook has Booker’s line @ 39.5 Points + Assists.

As sharp sports bettors, we follow the data. What’s so fascinating about sports betting is that all sportsbooks set lines independently. Thus, we essentially have dozens of data points telling us where a line should be set.

In this example, it’s clear that Booker’s P+A line is too high on Underdog Fantasy – every other sportsbook has Booker’s line a full point lower. Thus, we want to take the under 40.5 Points + Assists for Booker on Underdog Fantasy.

I locked in three picks on Underdog Fantasy. I’m staking $350 to win $2,100. My three picks are:

1. Devin Booker Under 40.5 Points + Assists in Suns vs Nuggets
2. Yanni Gourde Under 2.0 Shots on Goal in Kraken vs Stars
3. Tyrese Maxey Under 6.5 Rebounds + Assists in 76ers vs Celtics

No House Advantage: 5 Sharp Player Prop Bets

Next, I have five sharp NBA player prop picks on No House Advantage (NHA). This platform is very similar to Underdog Fantasy.

Just like PrizePicks & Underdog Fantasy, No House Advantage is a fixed payout platform. NHA does not vary payouts based on the picks you select. Any 5 pick entry will have the exact same payout. You could take 5 golf picks, 5 NBA picks, 2 NBA picks & 3 NHL picks, etc. – it doesn’t matter.

The first NBA pick I went with on No House Advantage is Kevin Durant Under 8.5 Rebounds. As seen in the screenshot above from OddsJam Positive EV, all sportsbooks have Durant’s under heavily favored (around -145 odds). Since No House Advantage does not vary payouts based on you selecting under (vs over), you want to take the under for Durant.

The sports betting math behind No House Advantage is in this Google spreadsheet. Basically, to be profitable playing 5 pick entries on No House Advantage, you need to win at least 53.22% of your player prop over/unders. If you have no “edge” or advantage, then you’ll only be able to win 50% of your prop bets on NHA, so you’ll lose money on this platform long-term.

The truth is that most sports bettors have no advantage. Most bettors find picks using their “gut” and “emotions,” and that just doesn’t work in sports betting… It’s 2023 – follow the data… Over 99% of sports bettors follow their gut & emotions, and that’s why 99% of sports bettors lose money long-term & keep the sportsbooks in business.

No House Advantage knows that most bettors can’t get an advantage & win above 50% of their player prop picks. That’s their business model – No House Advantage simply assumes sports bettors can’t find an “edge” in the market.

However, once you understand the math behind beating No House Advantage, it’s pretty easy… Since you just need to win above 53.22% of your picks to be profitable, you simply look for spots where sportsbooks have an under (or over) heavily favored, just like Durant under 8.5 rebounds. All sportsbooks have Durant’s under 8.5 rebounds heavily favored, so this is a sharp NBA bet to go with on NHA.

The Fantasy Optimizer is another OddsJam betting tool that makes it easy to beat fixed payout platforms like No House Advantage, PrizePicks & Underdog Fantasy. This betting tool simply shows you player prop picks that are winning above 53.22% of the time on NHA.

As seen on the Fantasy Optimizer, Durant under 8.5 rebounds is 55.25% to win according to sportsbook odds. This should make sense… All sportsbooks have Durant’s under heavily favored, so we know his under is more likely than his over (e.g. Durant’s under will win above 50% of the time). The Fantasy Optimizer just quantifies the exact win probability for each pick based on sportsbook odds. For Durant under 8.5 rebounds, it’s 55.25%.

My five sharp player prop picks on No House Advantage are:

1. James Harden Over 5.5 Rebounds in 76ers vs Celtics
2. Marcus Smart Over 1.5 Made Threes in 76ers vs Celtics
3. Jaylen Brown Under 2.5 Made Threes in 76ers vs Celtics
4. Kevin Durant Under 8.5 Rebounds in Suns vs Nuggets
5. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Under 1.5 Made Threes in Suns vs Nuggets