Embiid, Tatum, Harden: 4 Sharp NBA Bets for Game 7 of 76ers vs Celtics

In this betting preview, I’m going to run through four sharp picks for Game 7 of 76ers vs Celtics. I have plays on Underdog Fantasy and Fliff sportsbook.

Pick #1: Joel Embiid Under 34.0 Points + Assists on Underdog Fantasy

My first player prop pick for Game 7 of 76ers vs Celtics is Joel Embiid Under 34.0 Points + Assists (P+A). I found this pick on the OddsJam NBA Screen.

As seen in the screenshot above, Underdog Fantasy is the only platform with Embiid’s line @ 34.0 P+A. PrizePicks & all sportsbooks have Embiid’s line lower at 33.5. Some sportsbooks, including BetMGM, even have Embiid’s under 33.5 P+A as the favored outcome; BetMGM is -115 o33.5 / -120 u34.5.

As sharp sports bettors looking to make money, we follow the data. Sportsbooks set lines independently (e.g. each book has different odds & betting lines), so we hunt for inefficiencies, or value, in the market. We’re just like savvy investors or day traders, searching for an “edge” and undervalued assets.

For Embiid, it’s clear that Underdog Fantasy has his line set too high at 34.0 P+A – there’s dozens of data points (e.g. sportsbooks posting odds) telling us that his line should be half a point lower at 33.5. Thus, we want to take the u34.0 for Embiid on Underdog Fantasy. We found an “edge” in the market.

For the exact same reasons, I also took Tatum under 35.0 Points + Assists. As seen in the screenshot above, PrizePicks & all sportsbooks have Tatum’s line set at 34.5 P+A. Underdog Fantasy is once again too high relative to every other data point, so we want to take the under for Tatum as well.

Pick #2: James Harden Over 0.5 Points on Underdog Fantasy

My next NBA pick for 76ers vs Celtics is James Harden Over 0.5 Points. Harden’s stat line on every sportsbook is over/under 20.5 points, but Underdog Fantasy is running a promotion for Game 7.

Of course, we want the over for Harden. If he scores 1+ point, then this pick will cash. It’s basically free money…

It may seem strange that sportsbooks offer extremely profitable promos like James Harden 1+ Point. However, it’s a marketing cost for sportsbooks. Underdog Fantasy wants to entice sports bettors to keep coming back to their platform, as they know they’ll make money off most customers long-term. It’s just marketing for the sportsbooks.

PrizePicks is running a similar promotion on Joel Embiid. His stat line is over/under 0.5 points. Obviously, we’d want to take the over once again… This is basically a free win on PrizePicks.

I recommend signing up for as many sportsbook accounts as possible. More = merrier as sharp bettors. You never know which sportsbook is going to offer profitable promotions on a given day. Sometimes, it’s PrizePicks. Other days, it’s FanDuel sportsbook or Underdog Fantasy.

Underdog Fantasy has a maximum wager size of $20 for this promotion on James Harden. I’m staking $20 to win $120 if all three of my player prop picks hit. I’m on:

• Jayson Tatum Under 35.0 Points + Assists
• Joel Embiid Under 34.0 Points + Assists
• James Harden Over 0.5 Points

Pick #3: Over 198 Points in 76ers vs Celtics at -140 Odds on Fliff Sportsbook

My next bet for Game 7 of 76ers vs Celtics is on Fliff sportsbook. Fliff is an 18+ online sportsbook that is available in practically every U.S. state. I’ve been able to find a myriad of profitable NBA bets on Fliff, so I highly recommend signing up for this bookmaker.

I’m on over 198 total points in 76ers vs Celtics at -140 odds. I found this sharp NBA bet on the OddsJam Positive EV Betting Tool. The Positive EV Betting Tool is easy to use – you just hit the pick in green & bold (e.g. o198 @ -140 odds on Fliff).

As seen in the screenshot above, Fliff is the only sportsbook offering the over 198 total points at -140 odds. The average price on the o198 is -161. We’re getting clear value on Fliff…

As sharp bettors, we’re always looking for value & inefficiencies in the market. Here, it’s clear that Fliff is giving way too good of odds on the o198 – every other sportsbook has the over much more favored.

I locked this NBA bet in for $250, which is the maximum stake allowed on Fliff. I’m betting $250 to win a total payout of $428.57. If there’s exactly 198 points in the game, then my bet will push (e.g. tie/get refunded).