Game 7 (?) Heat vs Knicks Betting Preview – What are the Odds?

I ran through this with Warriors and Lakers, and people liked the concept. If you want to check that one out, click here.

Now, let’s do it for the Heat / Knicks game:

On Friday, we have Game 6 of Heat vs Knicks. If the Heat win, they move on to play the winner of Sunday’s Celtics vs 76ers clash in the Eastern Conference Finals.

I’ll pose an interesting question, and there’s a clear mathematical answer to it… What would the odds be on a Heat vs Knicks Game 7 assuming the Knicks win Game 6?

To answer this question, we need to know two things:

1. What’s the probability the Knicks win Game 6?
2. What’s the probability the Knicks win the series?

The New York Knicks need to win back to back games to reach the Eastern Conference Finals. Let’s say that:

• A = the probability the Knicks win Game 6
• B = the probability the Knicks win Game 7
• C = the probability the Knicks win the series

A x B = C. If the Knicks were 50% to win both Game 6 and Game 7, then they’d be 25% to win the series (50% x 50% = 25%).

Heat vs Knicks Game 6 Betting Odds

As seen on the NBA Odds Page, the Knicks have an average price of +202 moneyline odds on Friday in Game 6. They’re the significant underdogs.

Obviously, the Heat could close out the Series on Friday in Miami. That is why we don’t have odds for Game 7 yet- there may not even be a game 7!

The Knicks are underdogs in Game 6, so, according to the market, they’re less than 50% to win on Friday.

We can use a No Vig Calculator to determine the exact win probability for New York in Game 6. Across the sports betting market, the average price on Knicks’ moneyline is +202 odds. The average price on the Heat moneyline is -250 odds.

As seen in the screenshot above, according to the betting market, the Knicks are 31.67% to win on Friday. Again, that makes sense – the Knicks are the underdogs in Game 6.

Heat vs Knicks Series Betting Odds

Although sportsbooks don’t have odds posted for a potential Game 7 of Knicks vs Heat, they do have “Series” markets. As seen on Caesars sportsbook, the Heat are -440 odds to win the series. The Knicks are +340 odds.

This means the Heat are heavily favored to win this series one way or another, at over -400 odds (e.g. 4:1 betting favorites). A 4:1 betting favorite simply means 4/5 to win the series, or 80%.

Using a no vig calculator, we see that the market is giving the Heat a 78.19% probability of winning the series against New York (odds via Caesars sportsbook).

We now know the following…

• A = the probability the Knicks win Game 6 = 31.67%
• B = the probability the Knicks win Game 7 (STILL UNKNOWN)
• C = the probability the Knicks win the series = 21.81%

We also know that A x B = C, so we can back out the win probability for the Knicks in a potential Game 7.

31.67% x B = 21.81%, so B = 68.86%

Thus, according to the betting market, the Knicks will have a 68.86% win probability in Game 7 assuming they can take Game 6.

Finally, we plug this Game 7 win percentage into an Odds Converter Calculator. According to the market, assuming the Knicks win Game 6, they’ll be huge favorites in Game 7 at -221 moneyline odds.