In this betting preview, we’ll be running through some early picks & bets for Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Finals. Game 5 is set to tip off at 5:30 PM EST on Thursday, May 25.
As seen in the screenshot above from the NBA Odds Page, the betting market is giving Miami no respect in Game 5. The Celtics have an average price of -300 moneyline odds (e.g. 3:1 betting favorites) across the sports betting market.
The Celtics are currently 8 point favorites on the spread, and the total is currently set at an over/under of 215.5 points.
Heat vs Celtics Game 5 Pick: Over 110.5 1st Half Total Points at +115 Odds on Fliff Sportsbook
My first pick for Game 5 of Heat vs Celtics is Over 110.5 1st Half Total Points at +115 Odds on Fliff Sportsbook. I found this sharp NBA bet on the OddsJam Positive EV Betting Tool (picks in green = profitable).
The Positive EV Betting Tool is simple – it just points out value in the market. There’s no fluff, no B.S. The profitable bet is highlighted in boldand green.
As seen in the screenshot above, Fliff is the only sportsbook offering the o110.5 1H Total above +100 odds… Just look at the “prices” (e.g. odds) on the over 110.5 1H Total on other sportsbooks:
FanDuel -102 odds
Caesars -110 odds
The average price on the o110.5 1H Total points is -103 odds; getting this play at +115 on Fliff is crazy value!
As sharp bettors, we treat each sportsbook as a data point on where the line should be set. Here, it’s clear that Fliff sportsbook is “slipping up” and offering way too good of a price on the over 110.5 1H Total Points.
Investors & day traders hunt for value in the market all day long. It’s no different as a sharp sports bettor. If you want to make money sports betting, then you should be constantly hunting for inefficiencies (e.g. value) in the market.
I locked in this play on Fliff for $250. I’m staking $250 to win a total payout of $537.50.