He’s Overrated: 6 CRAZY NBA Player Prop Bets for Wednesday, May 10

The Heat & the Lakers can close out their respective series on Wednesday, May 10. It’s going to be a big day for basketball fans…

In this betting preview, I’m going to run through six sharp NBA player prop bets for Lakers vs Warriors and Heat vs Knicks. I have three player prop picks for each game.

As a note, in these articles, I’m simply showing you where I’m finding value and an “edge” – what I’m putting my own money on… It really is that simple.

As seen on my Pikkit Sports bet tracker, I’ve profited $30,562.62 on player props in 2023 for an ROI of 8.28%. Pikkit Sports is just a verified bet tracker. You sync your sportsbook accounts, and Pikkit tells you your profit & loss broken down by sport, league and bet type (e.g. player props, point spreads, etc). All of my plays are public on Pikkit.

Pick #1: Austin Reaves Under 4.0 Assists on ParlayPlay in Lakers vs Warriors Game 5

My first player prop pick is Austin Reaves under 4.0 Assists on ParlayPlay.

As seen in the screenshot above the Odds Screen, ParlayPlay has Reaves line @ 4.0, but all other bookmakers/fantasy sports platforms have Reaves line @ 3.5 Assists.

Follow the data… ParlayPlay is too high compared to to every other data point (e.g. sportsbook posting odds), so you want to hit the under 4.0 Assists.

As sharp bettors, we treat every sportsbook as a data point on where the line should be set. PrizePicks, a direct competitor to ParlayPlay, has Reaves’ line at 3.5 Assists. Underdog Fantasy, another ParlayPlay competitor, has Reaves’ line at 3.5 Assists as well.

These platforms (e.g. data points) are telling you that ParlayPlay is slipping up – they have his line too high at 4.0, so we found value (e.g. an “edge”) and want to take the under for Reaves on ParlayPlay.

In this series against the Warriors, Reaves has gone under 4.0 Assists in three of four games. In games 1 to 3 of the series, Reaves had 3, 2 and 2 assists respectively. In Game 4, Reaves had exactly four assists.

Pick #2: Bam Adebayo Over 0.5 Steals on ParlayPlay in Knicks vs Heat Game 5

My second player prop pick on ParlayPlay is for Knicks vs Heat. I’m on Bam Adebayo Over 0.5 Steals. I found this NBA player prop bet on the OddsJam Fantasy Optimizer.

The Fantasy Optimizer is a simple tool… On ParlayPlay, a fantasy sports platform, you need to win at least 53.22% of your player prop over/unders to be profitable. Most sports bettors have no advantage, so they can only win their over/unders correctly 50% of the time (e.g. win 50%, lose 50% of their picks).

As seen in the screenshot above, Bam’s over 0.5 Steals is 54.19% to win according to the sportsbooks. All bookmakers have Bam’s over 0.5 steals heavily favored (around -140 odds), so we know that his over is more likely to occur than his under.

Nearly all of my NBA prop bets for May 10 are from the Fantasy Optimizer. I’m staking $60 to win $1,500 on ParlayPlay if all six NBA bets hit. My six picks are:

• Bam Adebayo Over 0.5 Steals
• Mitchell Robinson Over 0.5 Steals
• Gabe Vincent Over 12.5 Pts + Reb
• Lebron James Over 14.5 Reb + Ast
• Austin Reaves Under 4.0 Assists
• Draymond Green Under 8.5 Points