Jokic, Durant, Jokic: Six Last Minute Bets for Nuggets vs Suns

In these betting previews, I’m just showing you what I’m putting my own money on. If I find value on FanDuel, then I’ll have more bets on FanDuel sportsbook. If I find profitable picks in the NHL, then I’ll have more bets on the NHL. It’s that simple.

Today, I’m going to be running through six sharp bets for Nuggets vs Suns. I found a lot of value in the player prop markets.

Nuggets vs Suns Betting Odds

Denver is a slight underdog in Game 4. As seen in the screenshot below from the OddsJam NBA Odds Page, Denver is best offered at +108 moneyline odds on Kutt sportsbook. The Suns are best offered at -111 odds. Betting markets are predicting a close game…

As a sharp sports bettor, it’s critical that you get the best possible odds on all of your wagers. This is called line shopping in sports betting.

If you want to bet on the Nuggets, then you should be placing your wager at +108 on Kutt. If you’re betting at -105 odds on the Nuggets when another book is offering +108, then you won’t stand a chance at making money sports betting – you’re getting a “rip off” price at -105.

Sports betting without line shopping is like being an investor who has to pay 20% extra for every investment – you won’t stand a chance at winning long-term… Making money sports betting is all about finding value in the market.

The Denver Nuggets are +1 point spread underdogs, and the total is currently set at an over/under of 227. Devin Booker & Kevin Durant are (unsurprisingly) expected to lead the game in scoring. Books have Durant’s over/under set at 30.5 points, and Devin Booker’s line is currently 31.5 on all major sportsbooks.

Pick #1: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Under 11.5 Points + Assists on ParlayPlay

My first betting pick for Nuggets vs Suns is Caldwell-Pope under 11.5 Points + Assists. I found this player prop bet on the OddsJam NBA Screen.

As seen in the screenshot above, ParlayPlay is the only platform with Pope’s line set at 11.5 Points + Assists. PrizePicks, DraftKings and every other sportsbook have Pope’s line set at 10.5. This is exactly what we’re looking for as a sharp sports bettor – we’re hunting for inefficiencies in the market.

It should be clear that ParlayPlay has Caldwell-Pope’s line too high – every other data point (e.g. sportsbook posting odds) is telling us that his line should be set at 10.5. Getting a full point of value on the under is a “no brainer” player prop pick for Game 4 of Nuggets vs Suns.

Pick #2: Kevin Durant Under 14.5 Rebounds + Assists on ParlayPlay

My second NBA prop bet for Suns vs Nuggets is also on ParlayPlay. I’m on Durant under 14.5 Rebounds + Assists, and I found this sharp NBA pick on the Fantasy Optimizer.

ParlayPlay is a fixed payout platform. Recently, I’ve been able to find a lot of profitable NBA picks on this platform, which is why I’ve been writing about ParlayPlay more. Again, in these strategy articles, I’m just showing you what I’m putting my own personal money on & where I’m finding value.

To beat ParlayPlay, you need to win above 53.22% of your player prop over/unders. Here’s the full DFS strategy article breaking down how to win on ParlayPlay and other fantasy sports platforms like PrizePicks, Underdog Fantasy.

The Fantasy Optimizer uses sportsbook odds to calculate win probability. Every betting tool on OddsJam is just based in raw data – sportsbook odds – there’s no B.S.

All sportsbooks have Durant’s under 14.5 R+A as the favored outcome, so, according to the data, Durant is more likely to go under as opposed to over. For example, DraftKings sportsbook has Durant’s under favored at -135 odds.

If you learn anything from these strategy articles, follow the data. Over 99% of sports bettors find picks with their “gut,” and that’s why 99% of bettors lose money long-term & the sportsbooks are still in business… It’s 2023, use data. You can’t outsmart and beat sportsbooks with your gut – you’ll be like every other bettor & lose money long-term.

My six pick entry on ParlayPlay is below. I’m staking $60 to win $1,500 if all six picks win. I have four NBA prop bets, as well as two NHL picks.

My 6 picks are:

• Jokic Over 22.5 Rebounds + Assists
• Caldwell-Pope Under 11.5 Points + Assists
• Payne Under 10.5 Points
• Durant Under 14.5 Rebounds + Assists
• Bobrovsky Over 29.5 Saves
• Musgrove Over 5.5 Ks

Pick #3: Jokic Over 8.5 Assists at -105 Odds on Fliff Sportsbook

I also have two NBA picks on Fliff sportsbook for Nuggets vs Suns. My first betting pick is Nikola Jokic Over 8.5 Assists. I bet this at -105 odds.

I found this sharp NBA prop bet on the OddsJam Positive EV Tool. The Positive EV Betting Tool is easy to use – you simply place the bet in bold & highlighted in green.

Getting Jokic’s over 8.5 Assists at -105 odds is clear value. Just look at the ‘prices’ (e.g. odds) on Jokic’s over on other sportsbooks… The average ‘price’ on Jokic over 8.5 Assists is -123 odds.

As sharp bettors, we treat every sportsbook as a data point on where the line should be set. Here, it’s clear that Fliff is giving way too good of a price on Jokic’s over.

As always, I put my money where my mouth is. I locked in this NBA prop bet on Nikola Jokic for $100 on Fliff.

My final NBA bet for Game 4 of Nuggets vs Suns is Denver -2.0 point spread at +130 odds. I also found this NBA betting pick on the OddsJam Positive EV Tool.

This NBA pick is an alternate market wager. The “mainline” point spread is Denver +1.0, but sportsbooks typically offer a variety of point spread options for bettors to wager on. As seen in the screenshot below, Fliff offers a myriad of point spread options. Often times, the most profitable point spread wagers are in the “Alternate Market” category.

I locked in this NBA bet on the Nuggets +2.0 for $100 as well. I’m staking $100 for a total payout of $230 if the Nuggets win by 3+ points. If the Nuggets win by exactly 2 points, then my bet will push.