Jokic, Harden, Scherzer: Dozens of Sharp Player Prop Bets for Tonight

In this preview, I’m going to be running through a variety of prop bets for tonight. I have NBA, MLB and NHL betting picks.

I have bets on Fliff sportsbook, ParlayPlay, PrizePicks and No House Advantage, as these were the platforms that I found value on… In these articles, I’m simply showing what I put my own money on. I’m currently in California, so I don’t have access to Caesars, DraftKings or FanDuel.

Pick #1: Al Horford Over 15.0 Points + Rebounds on ParlayPlay

My first NBA prop bet for Celtics vs 76ers is Al Horford Over 15.0 Points + Rebounds. This NBA pick is on ParlayPlay, a fantasy sports platform. I’ve been able to find a lot of profitable bets on ParlayPlay, so I highly recommend signing up for this sportsbook if you have access to it.

Again, all sportsbooks set lines independently. You never know which sportsbook is going to “slip up” and offer profitable bets on a given day. Sometimes, I find a lot of profitable picks on Underdog Fantasy. Other days, there’s very little value on Underdog Fantasy but tons of profitable bets on Caesars sportsbook. That’s just how it goes… More = merrier as a sharp sports bettor.

I found this NBA prop on the OddsJam Odds Screen. As seen in the screenshot above, ParlayPlay is the only platform setting Horford’s line @ 15.0 Points + Rebounds. PrizePicks, Underdog Fantasy, FanDuel & every sportsbook have Horford’s line higher at 15.5 Points + Rebounds.

Thus, ParlayPlay is too low – we want to take the over 15.0 Points + Rebounds for Horford. We found value (e.g. an “edge”), as every data point (e.g. sportsbook posting odds) is telling us that Horford’s line should be set at 15.5 Points + Rebounds.

My first six player prop picks on ParlayPlay are above. I’m on:

1. Malcolm Brogdon Under 0.5 Steals
2. Yandy Diaz Under 1.5 Bases
3. Roope Hintz Over 2.5 Shots on Goal
4. Aaron Gordon Over 16.0 Points + Assists
5. Al Horford Over 15.0 Points + Rebounds
6. Bruce Brown Under 11.0 Points

I’m staking $20 to win $500 if all six player prop picks win.

Pick #2: Jayson Tatum Under 15.5 Rebounds + Assists on No House Advantage

My next player prop pick is also for the 76ers vs Celtics game. I’m on Tatum under 15.5 Rebounds + Assists on No House Advantage.

As seen in the screenshot above, PrizePicks, Underdog Fantasy and all sportsbooks have Tatum’s line a full point lower at 14.5 Rebounds + Assists. No House Advantage is screwing up – they have Tatum’s line too high and we have dozens of data points (e.g. sportsbooks posting odds) telling us that.

On No House Advantage, I also bet Joel Embiid under 29.5 Points. Once again, I’m just following the data… All sportsbooks have Embiid’s line at 28.5 Points. No House Advantage is too high so we want to the u29.5 Points for Embiid.

This is exactly how you get an “edge” on the sportsbooks & win long-term. Sharp sports betting is not glamorous – it’s not going to make you a millionaire overnight… However, when you’re following the data & finding value in the market, you make money long-term. It’s that simple.

Over 99% of sports bettors find bets using their “gut,” and that simply doesn’t work… The reason sportsbooks are in business is people betting with their gut.

My six picks on No House Advantage are:

1. Beniers Under 0.5 Points
2. Eberle Under 0.5 Points
3. Gourde Under 0.5 Points
4. Embiid Under 29.5 Points
5. Tatum Under 15.5 Asts + Rebs

All unders… I’m staking $200 to win $2,400 if all five player prop bets win tonight.

Pick #3: Over 228.0 Points in Suns vs Nuggets at +100 Odds on Fliff Sportsbook

My next play is on Fliff. I’m on over 228.0 Total Points in Suns vs Nuggets, and I found this NBA pick on the Positive EV Betting Tool.

As seen in the screenshot above, Fliff is the only sportsbook offering the over 228.0 at “plus money” (e.g. +100 odds). Every other sportsbook has the over 228.0 points at -108 odds or worse. We found value!

I locked in this NBA bet for $250 on Fliff. This is the maximum wager size allowed on Fliff. I’m staking $250 to win a total payout of $500.

Pick #4: Derrick White Under 18.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists on ParlayPlay

My fourth play for Tuesday, May 9 is Derrick White Under 18.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists on ParlayPlay. I found this player prop pick on the OddsJam Positive EV Tool (bet in bold/green = profitable).

As explained in the DFS Strategy Guide, ParlayPlay is a fixed payout platform. Just like PrizePicks & Underdog Fantasy, ParlayPlay does not vary your payout based on the six picks you select.

To be profitable on ParlayPlay, you need to win over 53.22% of your player prop over/unders. If you win 55% of your prop bets on ParlayPlay, then you’ll be profitable long-term. If you can only win 53% of your picks (e.g. losing 47%), then you’ll lose money on ParlayPlay. It’s that simple.

With these fixed payout platforms, all that matters is your win rate. These platforms assume you have no “edge.” If you don’t have an advantage, then you’ll only be able to hit 50% of your player prop over/unders – you’ll win 50% and lose 50% of your picks. To be profitable on platforms like PrizePicks, Underdog Fantasy, No House Advantage and ParlayPlay, you typically need to win at least 53.22% of your prop bets. Most sports bettors just can’t do it.

Here’s a full ParlayPlay tutorial video if you’re interested in learning more about this platform. My email is [email protected] – don’t hesitate to reach out if you have any questions about sharp sports betting strategies.

As seen above in the screenshot from OddsJam Positive EV, all sportsbooks have White’s under 18.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (PRAs) as the heavily favored outcome (around -135 odds). The sportsbooks are data points telling you that White is a lot more likely to go under 18.5 PRAs as opposed to over.

My six picks on ParlayPlay are:

• Derrick White Under 18.5 PRAs
• Jaylen Brown Over 33.5 PRAs
• Zach Eflin Under 4.5 Strikeouts
• Louie Varland Over 4.5 Strikeouts
• Max Scherzer Under 6.5 Strikeouts
• Tobias Harris Over 5.5 Rebounds

I’m staking $60 on ParlayPlay to win $1,500 if I hit all six prop bets.

Pick #5: Marcus Smart Over 12.5 Points on No House Advantage

No House Advantage is a platform very similar to ParlayPlay – they offer fixed payouts. Thus, the same betting strategy explained above applies to profiting on No House Advantage.

All sportsbooks have Marcus Smart’s over 12.5 Points as the heavily favored outcome (around -135 odds). The sportsbooks are data points telling us that Smart is a lot more likely to go over 12.5 points as opposed to under. Thus, we want to take Smart’s over 12.5 Points on No House Advantage. Smart over 12.5 Points is a prop bet that is winning above 53.22% of the time according to sportsbook odds, so it’s a profitable pick in a No House Advantage entry.

This No House Advantage entry was a bit of a bigger bet for me. I’m staking $500 to win $6,000 if all six picks hit. My six player prop picks are:

1. Marcus Smart Over 12.5 Points
2. Derrick White Over 2.5 Assists
3. James Harden Under 30.0 Points + Assists
4. Nikola Jokic Over 13.5 Rebounds
5. Jamal Murray Over 6.5 Assists

Pick #6: Michael Porter Over 6.0 Rebounds on PrizePicks

My sixth player prop for May 9 is on PrizePicks. I’m on Michael Porter Over 6.0 rebounds.

For Porter, the value is on PrizePicks… All sportsbooks have Porter’s line at 6.5 Rebounds. Thus, PrizePicks is too low relative to every other data point (e.g. sportsbook posting odds), so we want to take the over for Porter. Just follow the data.

It’s “Taco Tuesday” on PrizePicks, which is a promo that they run every week. Taco Tuesday entries have a maximum allowed stake of $25, so I locked in the following six picks in a flex play:

1. Jaylen Brown Over 27.5 Points + Assists
2. Bam Adebayo Over 0.5 Blocked Shots
3. Michael Porter Jr. Over 6.0 Rebounds
4. Philipp Grubauer Over 22.5 Goalie Saves (Taco Tuesday NHL pick)
5. Drew Rucinski Under 5.5 Hits Allowed
6. Grayson Rodriguez Under 5.5 Hits Allowed

Then, I removed the Taco Tuesday pick and included the remaining 5 player props in a 5 pick flex play. A screenshot of my flex play entry is below – I’m staking $200 to win $2,000 if all 5 pick hit.

Pick #7: Nuggets -4.5 1st Half Point Spread at +125 Odds on Fliff Sportsbook

Heading back to Fliff sportsbook, I locked in Nuggets -4.5 1st half point spread at +125 odds. I found this play on the Positive EV Tool.

As seen in the screenshot above, the average “price” on the Nuggets -4.5 1H Spread is +115 odds. We’re getting +125 odds on Fliff, which is clear value.

I locked in this NBA bet for $100. I’m staking $100 to win $225 if the Nuggets are leading at the end of the first half by 5+ points.