LeBron, AD and $500 – Six Sharp NBA Prop Bets for Game 1 of Lakers vs Nuggets

The Western Conference Finals begins on Tuesday… Tip off in Denver is set for 8:30pm EST.

In this betting preview, I’m going to run through six sharp player prop bets for Game 1 on May 16. I have prop bets on a variety of superstars, including Anthony Davis, LeBron James and Jamal Murray.

Pick #1: Anthony Davis Under 26.5 Points + Assists on ParlayPlay

My first NBA pick for Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals is Anthony Davis under 26.5 Points + Assists. I found this sharp NBA prop on the OddsJam Odds Screen.

As seen in the screenshot above, ParlayPlay is the only platform with AD’s line set at 26.5 Points + Assists. Underdog Fantasy, PrizePicks and every sportsbook have AD’s line set two full points lower at 24.5.

Follow the data. ParlayPlay is two points higher than the rest of the market, so we want to take the under. There’s dozens of data points (e.g. sportsbooks posting odds) that are telling us AD’s line should be set at 24.5 P+A. ParlayPlay is slipping up big time…

Davis went under 26.5 Points + Assists in four of six games in the Lakers’ last series against the Golden State Warriors. However, he went under 24.5 Points + Assists in only two games of the series.

• In Game 4, Anthony Davis had 25 Points + Assists
• In Game 5, Davis had exactly 26 Points + Assists

The point is that betting under 26.5 P+A is a completely different bet than under 24.5 P+A. Betting Anthony Davis u26.5 P+A is profitable; betting u24.5 P+A is not profitable.

Making money sports betting is all about finding value in the market. You’re not going to win every bet… It’s all about finding an “edge” and winning long-term.

As seen in the screenshot above from ParlayPlay, I’m up $2,048 profit so far on this platform since signing up. Every single play I’ve given out on Twitter, YouTube or both. Not every bet won, but that’s not the point… Every pick I give out is mathematically profitable (e.g. has an “edge”), so I always win long-term. It’s just math.

Pick #2: Jamal Murray Under 6.0 Assists on ParlayPlay

My second NBA prop for Game 1 of Lakers vs Nuggets is Jamal Murray Under 6.0 Assists. I found this sharp prop bet on the OddsJam Fantasy Optimizer.

On ParlayPlay, any player props winning above 53.22% of the time are profitable. As seen in the screenshot above, Jamal Murray under 6.0 Assists has a win rate of 54.21%, so this is a profitable player prop with an “edge.” All of the picks in green on the Fantasy Optimizer are mathematically profitable.

I went with six total player props for Lakers vs Nuggets. My six picks are:

1. Michael Porter Jr. Under 15 Points
2. Anthony Davis Over 26.5 Pts + Ast
3. Kentavious Caldwell Pope Over 14 Pts + Reb + Ast
4. Austin Reaves Over 1.5 Made Threes
5. Jamal Murray Under 6.0 Assists
6. LeBron James Over 8.5 Rebounds

Here’s a full ParlayPlay tutorial video if you’re interested in learning more about profitable sports betting on this DFS platform.