NBA Picks – Six Sharp Player Prop Bets for Sunday, May 7

In sports betting, the early bird gets the worm… Sometimes, the best betting opportunities are when sportsbooks first post odds for the upcoming day.

In this betting preview, I have six sharp NBA prop bets for Sunday, May 7. I have 3 picks for Suns vs Nuggets, as well as 3 prop bets for Celtics vs 76ers.

My six player prop bets are on ParlayPlay, a fantasy sports (e.g. DFS) platform. If you’re familiar with PrizePicks or Underdog Fantasy, ParlayPlay is a very similar platform. Just like PrizePicks & Underdog, ParlayPlay is a fixed payout platform.

As seen in the image below, any 6 pick entry on ParlayPlay has the following payout structure:

• 6/6 Picks Correct: 25x Payout
• 5/6 Picks Correct: 2.5x Payout
• 4/6 Picks Correct: 0.5x Payout

I know that PrizePicks & Underdog Fantasy are more popular platforms, but ParlayPlay offers better payouts than both platforms. Thus, I’ve been able to find more profitable betting opportunities on ParlayPlay.

In these strategy articles, my goal is to 1) educate about profitable sports betting and 2) give you profitable bets to tail that I put my own money on. If there’s more value on PrizePicks, then I’ll have more content about PrizePicks. If there’s more profitable bets on FanDuel, then I’ll have more articles & videos about FanDuel sportsbook. It’s that simple.

Pick #1: Ayton Under 25.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (PRAs) in Suns vs Nuggets

My first NBA bet for Suns vs Nuggets is Deandre Ayton Under 25.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists. I found this sharp NBA prop bet on the OddsJam NBA Screen. Ayton has gone under 25.5 PRAs in 2/3 games of the Suns vs Nuggets series.

As seen in the screenshot above, ParlayPlay is the only platform with Ayton’s line at 25.5 PRAs.

1. PrizePicks & Underdog Fantasy, two other fantasy sites, have Ayton’s line @ 24.5 PRAs
2. All sportsbooks have Ayton’s line at 24.5 or 23.5 PRAs

Long story short, it’s clear that ParlayPlay has Ayton’s line too high. As sharp bettors, we treat every sportsbook as a data point on where the line should be set, as all sportsbooks set lines independently. We then hunt down profitable bets & inefficiencies in the market – that’s how you actually make money sports betting & find an “edge.” Making money sports gambling requires work – there’s no silver bullet for making $1,000,000…

I think that Ayton Under 25.5 PRAs is one of the best NBA prop bets for Suns vs Nuggets Game 4. There’s dozens of data points (e.g. books posting odds) telling us ParlayPlay is too high with their line @ 25.5 – hit the under!

Pick #2: Harden Under 8.5 Assists in 76ers vs Celtics

My second NBA prop for May 7 is for 76ers vs Celtics. I’m on James Harden Under 8.5 Assists. I found this NBA pick on the OddsJam Positive EV Betting Tool.

I explained earlier that ParlayPlay is a fixed payout platform. ParlayPlay does not vary payouts based on the picks you select. You could have 6 golf picks, 3 NBA picks & 3 MLB picks, or any other combination – your payout will always be the same on ParlayPlay for a 6 pick entry.

Thus, the strategy for beating ParlayPlay is simple: find spots where sportsbooks have one side (e.g. the over or under) heavily favored.

As seen in the screenshot above, all data points (e.g. sportsbooks posting odds) have Harden’s under 8.5 assists as the heavily favored outcome (around -135 odds). This is exactly what we’re looking for when gambling on fixed payout platforms like ParlayPlay.

DFS platforms like ParlayPlay don’t change your payout based on you selecting under vs over, so you simply want to find picks that sportsbooks have heavily favored. In this case, it’s Harden under 8.5 assists. I’m just following the data!

As seen in the screenshot above from the Fantasy Optimizer, Harden under 8.5 Assists is 53.59% to win according to sportsbook odds. Every betting tool on OddsJam is based in raw data (e.g. sportsbook odds) – there’s no B.S.

I got two other NBA props for Nuggets vs Suns from the Fantasy Optimizer. I’m on Bruce Brown under 14.5 Points + Rebounds, as well as Jamal Murray Over 2.5 Made Threes. These are the top NBA player prop picks for Nuggets vs Suns Game 4.

My 6 pick entry on ParlayPlay is above. I’m staking $58 to win $1,450 if I hit all six NBA player prop bets. My six NBA picks are:

1. Bruce Brown Under 14.5 Points + Rebounds
2. Jamal Murray Over 2.5 Made Threes
3. James Harden Under 8.5 Assists
4. Jayson Tatum Under 33.5 Points + Assists
5. Al Horford Over 14 Points + Rebounds
6. Deandre Ayton Under 25.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists

I break down each prop bet in the strategy video below.