PrizePicks NBA: Five Sharp Player Props for the Conference Finals

After no NBA games on Monday, it’s finally time for the Conference Finals…

In this betting preview, I have five sharp NBA player props on PrizePicks. Four NBA props are for Game 1 of Lakers vs Nuggets, and I have one pick for Heat vs Celtics.

Pick #1: Jamal Murray Under 6.0 Assists in Lakers vs Nuggets

My first NBA prop for Lakers vs Nuggets is Jamal Murray Under 6.0 Assists. I found this sharp NBA pick on the OddsJam Fantasy Optimizer (picks in green = profitable).

PrizePicks is a fixed payout platform. To be profitable on this fantasy sports platform, we need to win above 54.25% of our player prop over/unders.

PrizePicks knows that most sports bettors have zero “edge” (or advantage) – they’ll will win 50%, lose 50% of their over/unders. Thus, recreational bettors with no edge will lose money on PrizePicks long-term, as they can’t win their player props above 54.25% of the time.

As seen in the screenshot above from the PrizePicks Optimizer, Murray under 6.0 Assists has a win rate of 55.03%. Since this player prop pick is winning above 54.25% of the time, it’s profitable in a PrizePicks entry.

Every betting tool on OddsJam is based in raw data – sportsbook odds. There’s no fluff, no B.S.

The Fantasy Optimizer uses sportsbook odds to determine the win probability for each player prop on PrizePicks. Then, this betting tool highlights all of the picks with win probabilities above 54.25% in green, as those plays are profitable. If all sportsbooks had Murray under 6.0 Assists at -200 odds, then Murray’s under would be a 2:1 betting favorite (e.g. 2/3 to win or 66.67%).

Pick #2: Schroder Under 14.5 Pts + Rebs + Asts in Lakers vs Nuggets

My second NBA prop for Lakers vs Nuggets is Dennis Schroder Under 14.5 Pts + Rebs + Asts. I found this NBA pick on the OddsJam Positive EV Betting Tool.

The Positive EV Tool works in a very similar way to the Fantasy Optimizer. You’ll notice overlap between both betting tools.

As seen in the screenshot above, all sportsbooks have Schroder’s under 14.5 Pts + Rebs + Asts as the heavily favored outcome (around -140 odds). Thus, according to the betting market, Schroder is a lot more likely to go under as opposed to over. This is another NBA player prop with a win rate above 54.25%, so it’s a profitable pick in a PrizePicks 5 flex play.

Pick #3: Michael Porter Under 21.5 Points + Rebounds in Lakers vs Nuggets

My third NBA pick for Game 1 of Lakers vs Nuggets is Michael Porter Under 21.5 Points + Rebounds. I found this sharp NBA prop on the NBA Odds Screen.

As seen in the screenshot above, PrizePicks is the only platform setting Porter’s line @ 21.5. Every other sportsbook has Porter’s line at 21.0 or 20.5 Points + Rebounds.

As sharp bettors, we treat every sportsbook as a data point on where the line should be set. In this case, all data points (e.g. bookmakers posting odds) have Porter’s line lower at 21.0 or 20.5 Points + Rebounds, so PrizePicks is too high. Hit the under!

Follow the data – that’s how you actually make money sports betting… You look for value & inefficiencies in the market.

I locked in five NBA props on PrizePicks. I’m staking $100 to win $1,000 if all player props in my 5 pick flex play hit. My 5 picks are:

• Jamal Murray Under 6.0 Assists in Nuggets vs Lakers
• Dennis Schroder Under 14.5 Pts + Rebs + Asts in Nuggets vs Lakers
• Marcus Smart Under 9.0 Rebs + Asts in Celtics vs Heat
• Michael Porter Jr. Under 21.5 Pts + Rebs in Nuggets vs Lakers
• Nikola Jokic Over 27.5 Points in Nuggets vs Lakers

The strategy video below breaks down all 5 picks on PrizePicks. If you have any questions about sharp, profitable sports betting, then please don’t hesitate to reach out to me at [email protected] – I’m always happy to help out!