Value in Lakers vs Warriors – Last Minute Player Prop Bets for Tonight

Lakers vs Warriors, LeBron vs Steph… Whether or not you hate these powerhouse franchises, it’s bound to be an exciting series.

The Lakers squeaked out a 117-112 win in Game 1. Anthony Davis led the charge for LA with 23 rebounds and 30 points.

Game 2 is set to start at 9:00pm EST, and I have a variety of player prop bets for tonight. Let’s get into it!

The Lakers are pretty big underdogs in Game 2. As seen in the screenshot above, the Lakers are best offered at +245 odds on BetOpenly. The Warriors are best offered at -245 odds on Kutt.

As a sharp bettor, it is critical to line shop and always get the best possible odds. If you’re placing bets on the Lakers moneyline at +225 on FanDuel when other sportsbooks are offering +245, then you’re getting ripped off. You don’t stand a chance of beating the sportsbooks long-term…

Betting on only 1 sportsbook account is like being a day trader who has to pay 20% extra for every stock you buy. Simply put, you won’t stand a chance of making money sports betting if you use just 1 account. Any sharp bettor knows that line shopping & having multiple sportsbook accounts is the key to success.

As seen in the screenshot below, lines have been ripping towards the Warriors. On May 3, sportsbooks opened the Golden State Warriors as -200 moneyline favorites (e.g. 2:1 betting favorites or 66.67% to win), but lopsided action has pushed the Warriors all the way down to around -280 moneyline odds on most sportsbooks.

Regardless, I don’t have a moneyline or point spread bet for Lakers vs Warriors Game 2. I wasn’t able to find value in either of these betting markets, and I bet to make money… Rather, in this betting preview, I’ll be going through a variety of NBA player prop picks for Lakers vs Warriors.

Pick #1: Anthony Davis Under 26.5 Points at -125 Odds on Fliff Sportsbook

My first pick is Anthony Davis under 26.5 points at -125 odds on Fliff. As a sharp bettor, you want to have as many sportsbook accounts as possible since you never know which book will “slip up” and offer profitable bets on a given day. Today, Fliff is screwing up…

As seen on the OddsJam Positive EV Tool (bet in bold/green = profitable), Anthony Davis under 26.5 Points at -125 odds has a 4.53% profit margin, as seen under the ‘Percent’ column. This play has incredible value… Just look at the “prices” (e.g. odds) on Davis under 26.5 points on other sportsbooks:

1. FanDuel: -162 odds
2. Caesars: -157 odds
3. Bet365: -140 odds
4. DraftKings: -155 odds
5. Golden Nugget: -160 odds
6. Pin: -180 odds

The average ‘price’ on Davis under 26.5 points is -151 odds, and we’re getting -125 on Fliff. That’s clear value!

Investors & day traders spend all day looking for value (e.g. an “edge”) in the market, and it’s no different as a sharp sports bettor… If you want to make money sports betting, then you need to be hunting for value & inefficiencies in the market.

Since all sportsbooks set lines independently (e.g. each book has different odds), we essentially have dozens of data points telling us where a line should be set. Every sportsbook is a data point. For Anthony Davis, aside from Fliff, all sportsbooks have his under 26.5 points heavily favored. Getting -125 on Fliff = clear value, so lock it in!

I bet on Anthony Davis under 26.5 points in a 2 pick parlay. The Philadelphia 76ers +3.0 @ -110 odds was also found on the OddsJam Positive EV Tool.

Pick #2: Jordan Poole Over 3.5 Assists at +130 Odds on Fliff Sportsbook

My second NBA bet for Lakers vs Warriors is Jordan Poole over 3.5 Assists at +130 odds on Fliff. Sometimes there’s a ton of profitable NBA picks on DraftKings, other days it’s PrizePicks, and some days it’s Fliff.

As seen in the screenshot above from OddsJam Positive EV, Fliff is the only sportsbook offering Poole over 3.5 Assists about +120 odds. The average “price” on Poole over 3.5 Assists is +112.

I locked in this bet for $250, which is the maximum bet size on Fliff sportsbook. I’m staking $250 for a total payout of $574.99.