Will Booker Ball? 9 Banging Bets for Nuggets vs Suns

Nuggets vs Suns is knotted up at 2 games a piece… Lines are whipping around, and, in this betting preview, I’m going to run you through 8 last minute player prop bets for tonight. I have sharp picks on PrizePicks & Fliff sportsbook.

Pick #1: Kevin Durant Under 5.5 Assists at -105 Odds on Fliff Sportsbook

My first pick for Nuggets vs Suns is Kevin Durant under 5.5 Assists at -105 odds on Fliff. I found this pick using the Positive EV Tool Betting (bet in bold/green = profitable).

As seen in the screenshot above, Fliff is the only sportsbook with Durant’s over 5.5 Assists as the favored outcome (o5.5 -135 odds, u5.5 -105 odds). Every other sportsbook has Durant’s under 5.5 Assists as the favored outcome, priced around -125 odds.

OddsJam has NBA odds from roughly 200 sportsbooks, including Fliff, DraftKings and FanDuel. It’s completely free to line shop (e.g. browse betting lines) on OddsJam.

As sharp bettors, we hunt through the market and look for value (e.g. an edge). As seen in the screenshot above, Fliff is offering clear value on Durant’s under 5.5 Assists at -105 odds. Just look at the ‘prices’ (e.g. odds) on Durant under 5.5 Assists on other sportsbooks:

• FanDuel: -122 odds
• Caesars: -135 odds
• WynnBet: -125 odds
• DraftKings: -125 odds

I hit Durant under 5.5 Assists at -105 odds for $250, which is the maximum bet size allowed on Fliff sportsbook. As seen in my betslip above, I also hit Bruce Brown Under 9.5 Points at +100 odds on Fliff sportsbook – this play was also found on the OddsJam Positive EV Betting Tool.

Pick #2: Kevin Durant Under 14.5 Rebounds + Assists on PrizePicks

My second NBA player prop pick for Suns vs Nuggets is on PrizePicks. It’s another play on Kevin Durant… I’m on Durant under 14.5 Rebounds + Assists. I used this player prop pick in two PrizePicks flex play entries.

I found this NBA prop on Durant with the PrizePicks Fantasy Optimizer. When using the Fantasy Optimizer, all of the player props in green are profitable in a PrizePicks 5 or 6 flex play.

PrizePicks is a fixed payout DFS platform. To cut to the chase, if you can win over 54.25% of your player prop over/unders on PrizePicks, then you’ll be profitable playing 5 or 6 pick flex plays. It’s that simple.

Here’s a full PrizePicks tutorial video, and please don’t hestiate to reach out if you have any questions about PrizePicks strategy. My email is [email protected].

All sportsbooks have Kevin Durant’s under 14.5 Rebounds + Assists as the heavily favored outcome. Sportsbooks are pricing Durant’s under around -140 odds. Thus, according to the sportsbooks, Durant’s under is a lot more likely than his over. As seen on the Fantasy Optimizer, Durant’s under 14.5 Rebounds + Assists has a win rate of 54.97%, which is above 54.25%, so this NBA prop is profitable in a PrizePicks 5 flex play.

Durant under 14.5 R+A is not a “lock” – there’s no such thing as “locks” in sports betting… Rather, this is just a play with a mathematical edge/profit margin.

The first 5 player props I have on PrizePicks are:

1. Patrick Corbin Over 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed
2. Jamal Murray Over 6.5 Assists
3. Pedro Martinez Portero vs Alexander Bublik under 23.0 games
4. Bam Adebayo Over 0.5 Steals
5. Kevin Durant Under 14.5 Rebounds + Assists

I’m staking $150 in a 5 pick flex play to win $1,500 total if all 5 player props hit.

Pick #3: Devin Booker Over 27.5 Points on PrizePicks

My next NBA pick for Suns vs Nuggets is on Devin Booker. I’m on Devin Booker over 27.5 points on PrizePicks.

Every Tuesday, PrizePicks runs a promotion called “Taco Tuesday” where they discount player stat lines. As seen in the screenshot above, PrizePicks is dropping Booker’s line from 31.5 points to 27.5 points.

As seen on the OddsJam NBA Screen (below), all bookmakers/fantasy sports platforms have Devin Booker’s line at either 31.5 or 32.5 points. Getting over 27.5 points for Booker is crazy value, which isn’t surprising considering this NBA pick is a part of the Taco Tuesday promotion on PrizePicks. I try to use every possible Taco Tuesday discounted player prop on PrizePicks, as they’re typically very, very profitable.

Taco Tuesday player props have a maximum allowed stake of $25. I locked in this player prop, along with four others, in a 5 pick flex play. I’m staking $25 to win $250 if all 5 picks hit.

Pick #1: Aaron Gordon Over 14.5 Points at -110 Odds on Fliff Sportsbook

My next player prop pick for Suns vs Nuggets is Aaron Gordon o14.5 points at -110 odds on Fliff. I found this play on the OddsJam Positive EV Tool.

As seen in the screenshot below, the average price on Gordon’s over 14.5 points is -127 odds. Getting -110 on Fliff = clear value…

As sharp sports bettors, we’re just like investors/day traders – we’re hunting through the market & looking for value. Since all sportsbooks set lines independently (e.g. each bookmaker has different odds), we essentially have dozens of data points telling us where a line should be set. It’s clear that Fliff is slipping up and offering too much value on Gordon’s over 14.5 points at -110 odds.

I played Aaron Gordon over 14.5 points in a two pick parlay on Fliff sportsbook. My second parlay pick is the Rays -1.5 at +140 odds, and I also found this bet on the Positive EV Tool. I’m staking $250 to win $1,145.45 if both bets hit.

In 2023, I’ve profited $50,091.92 on my NBA picks (source: Pikkit Sports). You can follow all of my bets publicly on this verified bet tracker. After the starting 2023 quite hot, I’ve cooled off a bit, but variance is just part of sports betting.