2023 ACC Tournament Prediction, Odds & Picks: Down Year Makes for Wide-Open Tournament

It’s no secret that this year’s ACC has not been the gauntlet it usually is. Just three teams are ranked in the AP Poll, and none in the top 12.

Duke, ranked No. 21 in the poll, enters the tournament as the favorite despite finishing third in the conference standings behind Miami and Virginia who split the league regular-season title at 15-5.

2023 ACC Tournament Odds:

2023 ACC Tournament Prediction & Picks

ACC Tournament Best Bet: Miami | +350 at Caesars

Miami has been undervalued all year. After rolling through their nonconference schedule that included Rutgers and Providence with only one loss (Maryland), the Hurricanes finished tied at the top of the ACC with a 15-5 record. Overall, Miami is 24-6.

Four of those losses have come in Quad 1 where the Hurricanes are 6-4. When you add in Quad 2, Miami is 11-4 in the top two quadrants. The weakness of the ACC is holding them back this year in both the NET (35th) and KenPom (37th), but head coach Jim Larrañaga’s team is all the way up to No. 14 in the AP Poll.

Miami will open up the tournament on Thursday with a quarterfinal matchup against either Syracuse or Wake Forest, two teams the Hurricanes should handle easily.

A potential matchup against Duke (the favorites at +270) awaits in the semis before the championship, which would likely be against Virginia. Miami is 1-1 against Duke this season with the home team winning each game, but the Blue Devils won by just two at Cameron Indoor Stadium, while Miami exploded for an 81-59 win in Coral Gables.

There was only one meeting between Miami and Virginia this season, but the Hurricanes won that as well, beating the visiting Cavaliers in a 66-64 thriller.

Miami is led by junior guard Isaiah Wong, who averages 16 points per game to go along with over four rebounds and three assists.

Senior guard Jordan Miller, sophomore forward Norchad Omier, and sophomore guard Nijel Pack also average in double-figures. Omier leads the team with 10 rebounds per game as well, meaning he’s averaging a double-double.

Miami may have recently had a bad Quad 4 loss to Florida State, but the Hurricanes have proven all season that they can compete at the top of the conference. I don’t see that changing in Greensboro, and +350 is good value in a market that is likely driven up by the public hammering Duke.

ACC Tournament Sleeper Pick: Pittsburgh | +1600 at Caesars

For our sleeper pick, we’re going with Miami’s most recent opponent. Pitt went on the road to Coral Gables and almost pulled off the victory, falling just short in a 78-76 loss. The Panthers also lost their previous game to Notre Dame, so they aren’t exactly coming into the tournament on fire.

The glass-half-full way to look at this would be that there’s a lot more value on Pitt now than there would have been had the Panthers won those two games.

Before those two losses, the Panthers had won eight of nine including a win over that same Miami team, and a Quad 1 win on the road at North Carolina.

Junior forward Blake Hinson leads the team in both points (16.1 per game) and rebounds (6.3 per game), while senior guard Jamarius Burton adds 15.6 points per game.

As the No. 5 seed, the Panthers do miss out on a first-round bye. Their likely road to a title would have to include wins over Duke, Miami, and Virginia, or all three ranked teams in the ACC. It may not be likely, but +1600 is a great sleeper price.

2023 ACC Tournament Bracket & Details

When is the ACC Tournament?

The ACC tournament will take place March 7-11, 2023.

Where is the ACC Tournament?

The ACC Tournament will be held at the Greensboro Coliseum in Greensboro, North Carolina.

How to Watch the ACC Tournament?

You can watch the ACC Tournament on the ACC Network and the ESPN family of networks.

Click Here to Read Our Other Conference Tournament Predictions:

• Big 12
• Big East
• Big Ten
• Pac-12
• SEC