Best College Football Bet Today: Lots of Value on Middle Tennessee

We’ve entered the time of year where there’s college football action pretty much every day there’s no NFL. So that means there’s football every night, and tonight is no different.

Jacksonville State vs. Middle Tennessee Pick: Middle Tennessee Moneyline | -135 at Barstool

I found this play browsing lines for tonight on the OddsJam screen. The screen is incredible. With one quick scan, you can see what all the books across the market are offering. Moneylines, spreads, player props, you name it.

This also showed up on the Positive Expected Value tool. Let’s get into why:

As you can see in the screenshot above from the screen, the -135 that Barstool is offering is way off from the rest of the market.

Pinny, one of the sharpest sportsbooks in the world, has it at -154 with Jacksonville State at +136.

-135 and +136 is an arbitrage opportunity, which means the lines disagree so much that you can take both sides and make a small profit.

In this example from the arbitrage calculator, you could bet $135 on the -135 line and $99.58 on the +136 line. That’s a total stake of $234.58 and either way you return $235.

It’s not the best arbitrage opportunity, but what it tells me is that one of the books is seriously off in the way they are pricing this line.

Pinny is an incredibly accurate book, so I’m not going to say they’re wrong. Plus, as we saw in the first screenshot the other books like Caesars, DraftKings, and FanDuel side with Pinny.

Barstool is the outlier. I have no idea about any of the players in this game. I’m not betting with my head or my heart here, I’m purely betting with the data.

The market is saying that we are getting much better odds than what the fair value is, so I placed the bet.

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Best of luck if you tail!