NFL Season Player Prop Picks: Tons of Value on Underdog Fantasy

It’s that time of the year where we’re stuck betting only baseball, WNBA, and some other random sports like tennis we can find value on.

Every year around now I start to get itchy for the start of football season. Fortunately, we don’t have to wait until September to start finding profitable NFL player props on DFS sites like PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy.

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Let’s get into the picks:

Pick #1: Jaylen Waddle Over 1045.5 Receiving Yards

All of these picks will be based purely in data. I have my own opinions about how certain players and teams will fair over the course of the season, but I’m not going to lie to myself and act like I know more than the sportsbooks that put thousands of hours and dollars into setting these lines. They have the best models out there, so rather than waste my time trying to do it myself I just look for value in the market.

Underdog has set Waddle’s line at 1045.5, while PrizePicks has set it all the way up at 1149.5.

That’s a middle of over 100 yards. No House Advantage has the line at 1100, so I can tell I’m getting great value at 1045.5.

To learn more about middles, check out this video below:

Pick #2: Mark Andrews Over 800.5 Receiving Yards

It’s a very similar situation for Andrews’ prop. Underdog’s line here is at 800.5, which is basically 100 yards off from PrizePicks at 899.5.

Once again, I looked at No House Advantage to see which one it was closer to to get a consensus, and it was set at 885.5. That makes the 800.5 on Underdog the CLEAR outlier in the market and gives a lot of value on the Ravens’ tight end.

Pick #3: AJ Dillon Over 700.5 Rushing Yards

Now we head away from receiving yards to rushing yards, where Dillon’s total is 700.5 vs. 750.5 and 775.5 on the other sites. That may not seem like a massive difference, but at 700.5 across 17 games it’s an average of 41 yards per game. That’s almost like getting two extra games of value for the over!

Pick #4: Amari Cooper Over 875.5 Receiving Yards

Now we head back to receiving yards, where Amari Cooper’s total is listed at 875.5 on Underdog. Both PrizePicks and No House Advantage has the total AT LEAST 965.5 which means once again we are getting nearly 100 free yards of value.

Cooper racked up over 1,100 yards last year so 875.5 should be a breeze.

Pick #5: Najee Harris Over 6.5 Rushing Touchdowns

Last but certainly not least, we have a touchdown prop! Harris’ total on PrizePicks is set at 7.5, which creates a touchdown of a middle opportunity.

If he ends up with exactly seven touchdowns, the over we have here on Underdog wins while the under 7.5 on PrizePicks also wins. This concept applies to all of the above bets, and if you want to take a safer route you can form this same slip with all unders on PrizePicks. You’re guaranteed to win at least one of the individual player props across the two books, and hopefully hit that sweet, sweet middle.

Full Slip: