Titans vs. Colts (-3.5)
Sunday, Oct. 2 | 1 p.m. ET
This is a pretty gross game here. Both of these AFC South disappointments got their first win last week, but neither of them looked particularly impressive. The Colts managed to beat the Chiefs but left football analysts feeling worse about them as a team. The Chiefs gave that game away with multiple self-inflicted wounds more than the Colts having much to do with it.
The Titans finally got a good game out of Derrick Henry, but that offense is still stuck in the mud. The value play is on the Colts here, but admittedly I don’t have a ton of confidence in this one.
Bears vs. Giants (-3.5)
Sunday, Oct. 2 | 1 p.m. ET
The 2-1 Bears facing off against the 2-1 Giants! This is going to be a battle of NFC juggernauts.
Just kidding. Despite both teams being 2-1, these are two of the worst teams in the NFL. According to DVOA, the Giants are the fifth-worst team in the NFL, with the Bears not far behind as the tenth-worst.
If there is one thing that either of these teams can say they do well, it is the Bears with running the football. Their passing offense is legitimately dead-last in the NFL, but at least they run the ball at the sixth-best rate! This Giants team doesn’t really do anything well, and that includes stopping the run.
So, I’ll take the points with the Bears here.
Bears vs. Giants Pick: Bears +3.5 | -110 at Caesars
Jaguars vs. Eagles (-6.5)
Sunday, Oct. 2 | 1 p.m. ET
Now, this is going to be a legitimately fun game. Heading into the year, it was mostly thought of as a stinker, but with how good both the Jags and the Eagles look, this should be juicy. Especially with Doug Peterson returning to Philly as the Jags head coach.
The Jaguars are the second-best team in the NFL according to DVOA, while the Eagles are fourth. This matchup also features two of the only three teams in the NFL that are top 6 in both offensive and defensive DVOA (the Bills are the third team).
Overall, this game should be close, as these are two evenly-matched teams on paper and I don’t think the books have caught up to the Jaguars yet.
Jaguars vs. Eagles Pick: Jaguars +6.5 | -107 at PointsBet
Jets vs. Steelers (-3.5)
Sunday, Oct. 2 | 1 p.m. ET
Gross. The Jets have the worst defense in the NFL, but the Steelers offense, led by Mitchell Trubisky, isn’t exactly the team to take advantage of that. For some reason, Mike Tomlin is sticking with Trubisky as the starter, despite his horrific play.
On the Jets side, this might be the game in which Zach Wilson makes his season debut, which is probably a net negative for the Jets offense overall.
Regardless, this game should settle within a field goal, so I’ll take the points once again with the Jets.
Jets vs. Steelers Pick: Jets +3.5 | -110 at Caesars
Late Afternoon Sunday Slate
Cardinals vs. Panthers (-2)
Sunday, Oct. 2 | 4:05 p.m. ET
Gross. This is the battle of two of the saddest teams in the NFL. They aren’t the two worst teams, but definitely the saddest. The Cardinals literally just extended their head coach and GM in the offseason, but this Arizona team could not look more lost on the football field, and are the second-worst team in the NFL according to DVOA.
The Panthers, meanwhile, traded for Baker Mayfield hoping to solve their QB issues, but it turns out he and Sam Darnold are essentially the same level of awful QB. If nobody has made the Spider-Man meme of the two, that needs to be done ASAP.
Anyways, I’ll take the points here and move on with my life.
Cardinals vs. Panthers Pick: Cardinals +2 | -109 at BetRivers
Patriots vs. Packers (-10.5)
Sunday, Oct. 2 | 4:25 p.m. ET
The biggest news coming into this game is that Patriots starting QB Mac Jones is going to miss this game with a severely sprained ankle. He will be replaced by Brian Hoyer.
With that said, that isn’t the steepest drop-off in the world. Hoyer has shown in his career that he can be an effective game manager. The Packers offense is somehow rated favorably (9th-best in NFL), but I’m not quite buying it. They are only averaging 16 points per game. I like New England to keep this one within 10 points.
Patriots vs. Packers Pick: Patriots +10.5 | -107 at PointsBet
Broncos vs. Raiders (-2.5)
Do you want to know how bad Russell Wilson and this Broncos offense has been? They are 2-1, facing off against an 0-3 Raiders team who has lost to two bad teams, and yet the Broncos are underdogs.
Granted, the Raiders are the home team, but still. The Broncos were lucky to win both of their games so far, but their luck runs out on Sunday. I’ll lay the points with the winless Raiders.
Broncos vs. Raiders Pick: Raiders -2.5 | -107 at PointsBet