Against the Spread Picks for Every NFL Game: ATS Predictions for Week 5, Including Raiders vs. Chiefs on MNF

OddsJam’s football expert breaks down the NFL slate, giving his against-the-spread picks for every single game of football action! Find the top Week 5 odds, picks and predictions today below.

Monday Night Football

Raiders vs. Chiefs (-7)

Monday, Oct. 10 | 8:15 p.m. ET

Congratulations are in order for the Raiders, who won last week to get their first win of the season. Unfortunately for them, their reward is a date with the Chiefs in Kansas City.

The Chiefs have won eight of their last nine games against the Raiders, including two demolitions last year where the Chiefs scored a combined 89 points. This is certainly a different Raiders team from past seasons, but different doesn’t mean better.

Raiders vs. Chiefs Pick: Chiefs -7 | -107 at PointsBet

Thursday Night Football

Colts vs. Broncos (-3)

Thursday, Oct. 6 | 8:15 p.m. ET

The Colts are probably the team I got the most wrong heading into the season. I was high on them, but they have been legitimately awful this year, as evidenced by their 32nd ranking by DVOA. Another way of saying 32nd ranked is they are the worst team in the NFL.

Now, they have to travel to Denver on a short week and possibly without Jonathan Taylor. Give me the Broncos here.

Colts vs. Broncos Pick: Broncos -3 | -115 at DraftKings

Early Sunday London Game

Giants vs. Packers (-8)

Sunday, Oct. 9 | 9:30 a.m. ET

It makes me chuckle how the Giants are 3-1 and yet are over a touchdown underdog against the Packers in a game that is being played in London. It makes sense, because the Giants are about as flukey of a 3-1 team can be when you consider the opponents they’ve beaten so far. They are ranked 23rd in DVOA for a reason.

With that said, this Packers team hasn’t exactly been impressive themselves. They needed overtime to beat a Patriots team on their 3rd-string QB. The Packers should win, but I’ll gladly take the points with the underdog, even though they have QB injuries of their own.

Giants vs. Packers Pick: Giants +8.5 | -110 at FanDuel

Early Sunday NFL Slate

Steelers vs. Bills (-14)

Sunday, Oct. 9 | 1 p.m. ET

The Steelers finally made the smart decision to bench struggling QB Mitchell Trubisky for exciting rookie Kenny Pickett. Unfortunately for Pickett, though, is he has to go against the Bills and their 2nd-ranked defense in the NFL in Buffalo.

The Bills have now played two straight games in which they didn’t look particularly impressive, but they did come back from down 17 points to beat the Ravens. 14 points is a lot, obviously, but I’ll lay the home-team Bills to cover against a reeling Steelers team.

Steelers vs. Bills Pick: Bills -14 | -105 at PointsBet

Chargers (-3) vs. Browns

Sunday, Oct. 9 | 1 p.m. ET

This matchup is a battle of two teams that are admittedly hard to get a read on. Both sit at 2-2, with some disappointing losses.

To me, this game will come down to the trenches, where the Browns have the clear advantage. They are the 3rd-best rushing team in the NFL, while the Chargers struggle stopping the run. Sometimes, it is as simple as that.

Chargers vs. Browns Pick: Browns +3 | -110 at DraftKings

Texans vs. Jaguars (-7.5)

Sunday, Oct. 9 | 1 p.m. ET

*Here we have it folks, my favorite play of the week.*

I am hammering the Jags in this matchup. This line opened up at 3.5, and has already been bet up to 7 or 7.5 depending where you look. It will close above this number as well.

The Jags are at home, are still the 4th-best team in the NFL according to DVOA, even with the loss last week, and are going against the 31st-ranked team in the Texans. This one will get ugly, as the Jags aren’t shy to blow teams out.

Texans vs. Jaguars Pick: Jaguars -7 | -114 at BetRivers

Bears vs. Vikings (-7)

Sunday, Oct. 9 | 1 p.m. ET

The Bears seem determined to play 1980’s football in that they aren’t even bothering to pass the ball. The most yards QB Justin Fields has thrown for this season is 174, not eclipsing 125+ in any of his previous three starts. This was also the first week in which he attempted over 20 passes.

That is just not how you win games in todays NFL. I’ll lay the points with the home team.

Bears vs. Vikings Pick: Vikings -7 | -107 at PointsBet

Lions vs. Patriots (-3)

Sunday, Oct. 9 | 1 p.m. ET

Fun fact: The Lions have scored the most points of any team in the NFL with 140. Another fun fact: They are only 1-3 because they have also given up the most points of any team in the NFL with 141.

Luckily for them, they are going against a relatively offensive-inept team in the Patriots who might have to start their 3rd-string QB in this game. They should be able to put up points, which is something that I can not confidently say about the Patriots.

Lions vs. Patriots Pick: Lions +3 | -105 at Tipico

Seahawks vs. Saints (-5.5)

Sunday, Oct. 9 | 1 p.m. ET

This line feels like a trap, as Admiral Ackbar said best. I see no earthly reason why the Saints should be getting 5.5 points here.

They are 1-3, with their only win coming on a last-second 59-yard field goal against the Falcons, a game in which they had to come back in the fourth quarter. Despite being at home, they played in London last week so they will have somewhat of a weird travel week as well.

This feels like a game in which Vegas knows something and is begging you to take the Seahawks, but I’ll bite.

Seahawks vs. Saints Pick: Seahawks +5.5 | -107 at PointsBet

Dolphins (-3.5) vs. Jets

Sunday, Oct. 9 | 1 p.m. ET

I found it interesting that the Dolphins are playing their backup QB, on the road, but are still getting over a field-goal against a feisty 2-2 Jets team.

Teddy Bridgewater will be starting for the Dolphins in this one, who to be fair, is one of the better backups in the NFL. The Jets came back in impressive fashion last week with 2nd-year QB Zach Wilson coming alive in the fourth quarter in his first start in 2022.

I’ll back the Jets again this week, in a game that should be within a field goal either way.

Dolphins vs. Jets Pick: Jets +3.5 | -115 at FanDuel

Falcons vs. Buccaneers (-8.5)

Sunday, Oct. 9 | 1 p.m. ET

The Bucs seem to have figured some stuff out on offense last week, putting up 31 points on what was previously a top-10 rated defense in Kansas City. With that said, I still remain skeptical of this Bucs offense in general, as Week 4 was the first game all year they scored 20+ points.

The Falcons, meanwhile, somehow won a game in which QB Marcus Mariota only completed seven passes all game. That won’t fly against an elite Bucs defense, especially with Falcons star RB Cordarrelle Patterson out for this game. I’ll ride with the Bucs.

Falcons vs. Buccaneers Pick: Bucs -8 | -110 at WynnBET

Titans (-2.5) vs. Commanders

Sunday, Oct. 9 | 1 p.m. ET

The Titans have now won two straight after an abysmal start to the year, whereas the Commanders have lost three straight after a Week 1 victory. Commanders QB Carson Wentz specifically has been as horrific as all of Philadelphia and Indianapolis will tell you he is, while the Washington defense has also struggled.

Aside from their poor offense and poor defense, things aren’t too bad in Washington!

Even with the two victories, Tennessee hasn’t been too impressive themselves, only ranked 20th in DVOA. Wentz struggles against teams that can rush the QB, which Tennessee is relatively-average at. I’ll probably regret this, but I’ll take the Commanders to keep this within a field goal.

Titans vs. Commanders Pick: Commanders +3 | -115 at DraftKings

Late Afternoon Sunday Slate

49ers (-6.5) vs. Panthers

Sunday, Oct. 9 | 4:05 p.m. ET

Between quarterbacks Baker Mayfield and Jimmy Garoppolo, we could see two of the ugliest QB performances in the entire NFL season. There is something about these two that when they struggle, boy does it look bad.

Anyways, the deciding factor here is the defense of the 49ers. Mayfield stinks in general, but he especially stinks when he’s pressured. Unfortunately for him, the 49ers have the best defensive line in all of football, according to DVOA. The Panthers could legitimately get shutout here, so I’ll lay the points with the 49ers.

49ers vs. Panthers Pick: 49ers -6 | -110 at PointsBet

Eagles (-5.5) vs. Cardinals

Sunday, Oct. 9 | 4:25 p.m. ET

This Eagles team is legit. Last week, in a rain-soaked game against Jacksonville, the Eagles showed they could take a punch and still come out on top. The Cardinals, meanwhile, have shown that they couldn’t even take a slight breeze and come out on top.

The Cardinals rival the Panthers as the biggest dumpster fire in the NFL relative to expectations. They are the fourth-worst team in the NFL, and are bottom ten in offense (22nd), defense (29th), and special teams (23rd), all in terms of DVOA.

So, yes, I will be taking the Eagles in this one.

Eagles vs. Cardinals Pick: Eagles -5 | -112 at Tipico

Cowboys vs. Rams (-4)

Sunday, Oct. 9 | 4:25 p.m. ET

I’m not sure that the right team is favored here. The Rams sit at 2-2 after two dreadful and two mediocre performances, leaving them with the seventh-worst DVOA in the NFL. They specifically struggle at offensive line, which is a problem going up against the Cowboys and their fifth-ranked defense.

The most points the Cowboys have given up all year is 19, and that was Week 1 against the Bucs. The betting markets aren’t giving the Cowboys enough love since the Dak Prescott injury, so I will gladly take the points with them to keep this close and possibly win outright.

Cowboys vs. Rams Pick: Cowboys +4.5 | -107 at PointsBet

Sunday Night Football

Bengals vs. Ravens (-3)

Sunday, Oct. 9 | 8:20 p.m. ET

The Ravens are the home favorite here, despite losing both games to the Bengals last year, giving up 82 points combined. The Bengals scored exactly 41 in both of their games against the Ravens last year.

With that said, this isn’t exactly the same Bengals offense from last year, though. Even with the two-game win streak, the Bengals still have the sixth-worst offense in the NFL. Play-calling specifically has been a point of contention with the Bengals, as they seem to love to run the ball, despite being very bad at it.

The Ravens defense is improved from last years unit, but I still guess this game stays within a field goal.

Bengals vs. Ravens Pick: Bengals +3.5 | -117 at Tipico