NFL Player Props in June? Tons of Value on PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy

Football picks in June? Who can say no to that? This isn’t even the XFL or USFL or any other knockoff league. We have real NFL value for the upcoming season. Nothing makes me more excited for fall than the idea of making money on football.

Daily Fantasy sites like PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy have already posted full-season player prop lines for the 2023 NFL season…and they are not on the same page whatsoever.

PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy are two competitors in the DFS space, and both provide incredible opportunities for profitable sports bettors like us. If you haven’t already, be sure to sign up for both by using promo code “ODDSJAM” for a $100 deposit match on your first deposit.

After you deposit money into your account, be sure to sign up for the OddsJam Fantasy Optimizer, which will show/highlight in green profitable bets to include in all your DFS entries across PrizePicks, Underdog, JockMKT, Fliff, ParlayPlay, Thrive, and more.

I’ve had a ton of success using OddsJam, and want you to enjoy the same INSANE profits. Check out this video to learn more:

Back to the bets…I’m not someone who runs models to see exactly how many touchdowns each player is going to score. Why would I put in all that effort when the sportsbooks have far more time to spend on it than I do? I let them do all the work and then I analyze the discrepancies in the market. Let’s get into some of the ones I found.

NFL Full-Season Receiving Touchdowns Props

No. 1: Jaylen Waddle (6.0 Underdog / 7.5 PrizePicks)

Jaylen Waddle is one of the great young receivers in the NFL, and also has one of the coolest touchdown celebrations.

Now, I have no idea how many times he’ll get to use it this season, but I do know how to take advantage of PrizePicks and Underdog having a major disagreement.

Underdog has listed his over/under for receiving touchdowns at 6.0, while PrizePicks is at 7.5. I took the over on Underdog, and the under on PrizePicks.

It’s literally impossible to lose both. Better yet, if he gets exactly seven touchdowns then I win both. Even if he gets six, I win the under on PrizePicks and push on Underdog.

A whole touchdown and a half is a HUGE difference, even over the course of a season.

No. 2: Tyler Lockett (5.0 Underdog / 6.5 PrizePicks)

Here’s another great example, but this one is even better. It’s still a 1.5 touchdown difference but with a lower total, the likelihood that the difference comes into play is higher.

Think about it. Even though both are only one point different, that point means way more for an over/under for a football game set at 42.5 than it does a basketball game set at 230.5. The less points (or touchdowns) expected, the more advantage you have with the differential.

Let’s hope Lockett gets exactly six touchdowns so both bets can cash.

No. 3: Calvin Ridley (5.0 Underdog / 6.5 PrizePicks

Not much new to add here, as Ridley has the exact same lines as Lockett. Hopefully he ends the season with six as well so I can hit the over on Underdog AND the under on PrizePicks.

No. 4: Brandon Aiyuk (4.5 Underdog / 6.0 PrizePicks)

This is the best one yet. We still have that 1.5 touchdown differential but at even lower totals. This means it’s very likely that Aiyuk ends up with either five or six touchdowns, both of which would bring our edge into play.

If he ends on five, we cash both bets with over 4.5 on Underdog and under 6.0 on PrizePicks. If he ends on six, we still win the over on Underdog and push on PrizePicks.

No. 5: George Pickens (3.5 Underdog / 4.5 PrizePicks)

This differential is only one touchdown, but it’s a low enough number where it can make a huge difference. If Pickens ends up with exactly four touchdowns we win the over on Underdog AND the under on PrizePicks.

Here’s a full video breakdown of why these bets are extremely profitable:

Full Underdog Slip

Full PrizePicks Slip

As you can see, I added Vladdy’s total bases for today to make it a six-pick slip, but if you’re reading this after his game started it’s totally fine to do just the five NFL picks.

I found this Guerrero Jr. play on the OddsJam Positive Expected Value tool.

As you can see in the screenshot above, most sportsbooks set the line for his under 1.5 bases in the -140 to -150 range. All we need to profit consistently on PrizePicks is to beat -119 fair odds.

To be profitable at PrizePicks, you need to be winning your bets 54.25% of the time (which translates to beating -119). Any bet with a higher percent chance to win than that, like in our example above, is mathematically profitable.

PrizePicks knows that most sports bettors have zero “edge” (or advantage) – they’ll will win 50%, lose 50% of their player prop over/unders. Thus, recreational bettors with no edge will lose money on PrizePicks long-term, as they can’t win their player props above 54.25% of the time.

We’re different from most bettors because we have an edge when we find advantages in the market like we have here.

Best of luck if you tail, and I can’t wait for us all to crush football season!