Week 1 NFL Parlay: Tons of Early Value at Fliff

We’re two weeks away from Week 1 of the NFL season but I’m already finding great value at Fliff.

Fliff is a social sportsbook available in many states where books like DraftKings and FanDuel are not. Because they are technically a social sportsbook, they allow real-money betting in states like California and Texas.

If you haven’t signed up for Fliff yet, be sure to do so using code ‘ODDSJAM’ for a $100 deposit match. It’s free money, so you might as well take it!

Pick #1: Washington Commanders -6 | -110 at Fliff

The Arizona Cardinals are a mess right now, so I love the opportunity to bet against them with the math on my side.

I found this bet on the OddsJam Positive Expected Value tool.

Take a look at the screenshot below for a glimpse of the value we are getting here:

As you can see on the tool, the line we are getting at Fliff is insane compared to the rest of the market. DraftKings has this all the way at -140, and Pinny is at -131 but with extremely small market width, making the opposite side +118.

That means that Pinny is offering the Cardinals +6 at +118, which creates an arbitrage opportunity. Pinny is considered the sharpest book for main markets, so anytime you see a line like this that’s an arb to them you can hammer it confidently.

Fliff’s line isn’t just off from the rest of the market, they have also screwed up their pricing. Commanders -6.5 is at -115, while -6 is at -110. That makes zero sense, as -6 is obviously less likely to lose than -6.5.

Pick #2: Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Indianapolis Colts Over 45.5 | +115 at Fliff

I found this bet on the OddsJam Positive Expected Value tool as well. This is another instance where Fliff’s lines are making zero sense.

Look at how the over 46 is +105, yet the over 45.5 is +115. Obviously, an over 45.5 bet is more likely to win than an over 46 bet.

This is just pure value. Instead of blindly taking bets based on what you think or predict will happen, follow the numbers.

Your mind or your predictive models are not better than the ones of the sportsbooks, which pour crazy amounts of time and money into the process of setting their lines.

Instead, scan the market and find outlier lines like this one. For you to do that manually would take forever, as only a tiny tiny percentage of available odds are mathematically profitable. The OddsJam positive expected value tool does all that for you by scanning millions of odds every second and spitting out only the bets that are beating market value.

Full Parlay: +310 at Fliff

I put $250 on this, which is the maximum Fliff allows. Of course, not every bet is going to win, but when we have a mathematical advantage through the odds like this then we will profit in the long run.

The Positive EV Tool simply points out value (e.g. large line discrepancies that create these advantages). It is constantly providing bets that will allow you to actually beat the sportsbooks long-term.

If you want to try out this sharp betting software for yourself, give our seven-day free trial a go here.