NFL Schedule Release – Where is the Value?

With the NFL schedule now out, it is time to look to the future! As we count down the days until the NFL season starts (September 7th), a great way to pass the time is debate endlessly over who has the best chance to win it all. Fans disagree, and somewhat surprisingly, so do sportsbooks. Different sportsbooks have different prices for who is going to win. As profitable bettors, that means there is value for us to find. Let’s explore:

Super Bowl Winner:

This scary looking picture is what the entire 2024 Super Bowl betting landscape looks like (which can be found here and is totally free for anyone to look at). To make it less scary, let me explain what you are looking at. The top row of icons show the sportsbooks offering the odds. Then, on the left, we have all the teams in the NFL, ordered from most-likely to win the Super Bowl to least-likely. Lastly, the numbers are what price you are getting: if something is +200, that means if you bet $100, you would win $200 in profit. Now onto the value:

Starting on the left, we can see that 10Bet is offering +600 Odds on the Kansas City Chiefs to win Super Bowl 58 (LVIII). If you are new to betting, that means if you bet $100, you will win $600 in profit (you get your $100 back, plus $600 in winnings).

Here is where things get interesting: if you were to bet on Barstool sportsbook, you would be getting $650 in profit. Why? Barstool is offering you +650 on the Chiefs to win. If someone offered you $650, would you ever say “No, I want $600 instead”? Of course not.

The same principal applies here: We talk about why you need multiple sportsbooks all the time, and we will keep talking about it because it is absolutely necessary to be a profitable bettor.

With all the tools on OddsJam, we try to make things simple. If something is in green, it means you are getting value:

On the Positive EV tools (try for free here), we show Jock Landale Over 8.5 in green because it is a profitable bet.

On our Fantasy Optimizer (try for free here), we show Alex Cobb Under 4.5 strikeouts because it is a profitable bet.

Same idea applies for the futures market. Why would you ever bet on a non-green play? You could be getting more value…

Largest Pricing Differences for Super Bowl Winners:

Philadelphia Eagles (+100 difference)

After making it to the Super Bowl last year, the Eagles are sitting as the #2 favorites to win it all behind last year’s champion, Kansas City. Most people agree that they are fairly priced at +800. DraftKings, Barstool, PointsBet, and others are offering you that bet. BetMGM is trying to pull a fast one on you, only offering +700. If you bet $100 on DraftKings, you would win $800 in profit if the Eagles complete their redemption arc this year. That same $100 bet on BetMGM would only pay you $700. Why would you bet somewhere offering you $100 less? It get’s worse…

San Francisco 49ers (+250 difference)

Don’t bet on the 49ers to win the Super Bowl on Caesars. Just don’t. They are only offering you +750. Quite a few books, like Barstool and BetRivers are giving you +1000. I want $1000 more than I want $750.

New York Jets (+400 difference)

Aaron Rodgers give you a solid reason to take a flier on the Jets to win it all this year. Make sure you are not placing that bet on PointsBet: while Barstool, BetRivers, and others are giving you +1600 (bet $100 to win $1600 in profit), you are only getting +1200 on PointsBet.

Cleveland Browns (+1000 difference)

The Browns are a long-shot to win it all. No denying that. However, if you want to have a chance to 35x your money, throwing $100 on the Browns to win it all would net you $3,500 on DraftKings. You would be costing yourself $1,000 in potential profit if you bet on PointsBet, who is offering +2500. Similarly, BetMGM is not where you should bet the Browns, since they are offering you +3000, a full 500 points less than DraftKings.

Houston Texans (+7500 difference)

This is more to prove a point than it is a suggestion…No one in their right mind is putting money on the Houston Texans to win it all. They are bad at football. But if you like rooting for an absolute miracle, do it on 10Bet or DraftKings. They are giving you +20000. Throw $100 on them and win $20,000…$20K. It won’t happen, but it’s fun to dream. That same bet on BetMGM would “only” make you $12,500. Now, this is a silly situation, but if you actually did want to bet on the Texans, and they pulled off the biggest underdog season in history and won it all, how pissed would you be if you got $12,500 and could have had $20,000 by literally just logging into a different app…

If you read all the way to the end, I am impressed. It mean’s you care about making money. If you want to take your betting to the next level, I would highly recommend you give OddsJam a try. We offer a 7-day free trial and 90-day money back guarantee. We know we can make you a profitable bettor. Click anywhere on this paragraph and let your sports betting journey begin!